2015 Topps Chrome Baseball — Hobby vs retail odds rundown

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By Ryan Cracknell | Hobby Editor

2015 Topps Chrome Baseball has several different configurations based on where you’re buying it. If you’re heading to your local card shop, you’ll find hobby and jumbo boxes. If you don’t have a hobby store nearby, you might come across it in the card aisle at Target, Walmart or another retail location. These have packs, larger Value Packs and blaster boxes.

To make each attractive in their own way, each 2015 Topps Chrome Baseball configuration has its own highlights. For hobby and jumbo, many will gravitate towards the promised autographs. Those that like colorful Refractors might look to retail for their exclusive colors.

Traditionally, hobby packs have better odds on premium content like autographs and memorabilia cards. And while that’s the case overall here, there are a couple of exceptions. Most notable are the Rookie Autograph Gold Refractors and Printing Plates. Both are exclusive to retail packs. And because of this, odds are better than you might normally expect for autographs that are on the rarer side.

For example, the Rookie Autograph Gold Refractors, which are numbered to 50, are 1:234 retail packs. Compare that to the Rookie Autograph Green Refractors that are spread across hobby, jumbo and retail packs. Despite being numbered to 99 copies each, they’re 1:424 hobby and 1,484 retail. The Green parallels are easiest to find in the hobby jumbos where they land 1:86 packs.

On the exclusives side, base Sepia and Pink Refractors are only at retail.

Hobby has a few exclusives of its own, most notably Rookie Autograph Orange Refractors (/25). Hobby and jumbo packs are the only place to find Rookie Autograph Superfractors. However, basic Superfractors are part of the retail mix, just not as an exclusive.

For a lot of the main parts of 2015 Topps Chrome Baseball, hobby and retail odds match up pretty closely. Some of the toughest inserts see things sway a little in hobby’s favor, but they’re rare no matter which pack type you’re busting.

Below is a full list of 2015 Topps Chrome Baseball odds lined up for easy reference and comparison.

2015 Topps Chrome Baseball Insertion Rates

Refractor Parallels

2015 TChBB Pink Kris Bryant

Hobby 1:3
Jumbo 1 per pack
Retail 1:3

Pink Refractor
3 per Retail Value Pack

Prism Refractor
Hobby 1:6
Jumbo 1:2
Retail 1:6

Sepia Refractor
4 per Retail Blaster

Purple Refractor /250
Hobby 1:38
Jumbo 1:12
Retail 1:38

Blue Refractor /150
Hobby 1:64
Jumbo 1:20
Retail 1:64

Green Refractor /99
Hobby 1:97
Jumbo 1:30
Retail 1:97

Gold Refractor /50
Hobby 1:191
Jumbo 1:59
Retail 1:191

Orange Refractor /25
Hobby 1:382
Jumbo 1:118
Retail 1:383

Red Refractor /5
Hobby 1:1,915
Jumbo 1:589
Retail 1:39,522

SuperFractor 1/1
Hobby 1:9,517
Jumbo 1:2,947
Retail 1:9,581

Printing Plate
Hobby 1:2,388
Jumbo 1:737
Retail 1:2,395

Rookie Autographs

2015 TCH BB Rookie Auto Gold Noah Syndergaard

Rookie Autograph
Hobby 1:21
Jumbo 1:3
Retail 1:137

Rookie Autograph Refractor /499
Hobby 1:54
Jumbo 1:29
Retail 1:211

Rookie Autograph Purple Refractor /250
Hobby 1:168
Jumbo 1:34
Retail 1:589

Rookie Autograph Blue Refractor /150
Hobby 1:280
Jumbo 1:57
Retail 1:982

Rookie Autograph Green Refractor /99
Hobby 1:424
Jumbo 1:86
Retail 1:1,484

Rookie Autograph Gold Refractor /50
Retail 1:234

Rookie Autograph Orange Refractor /25
Hobby 1:602

Rookie Autograph Red Refractor /5
Hobby 1:8,405
Jumbo 1:1,705
Retail 1:28,743

Rookie Autographs SuperFractor 1/1
Hobby 1:20,877
Jumbo 1:15,866

Rookie Autograph Printing Plate
Retail 1:2,955

Additional Inserts

2015 Topps Chrome Baseball Future Stars Jorge Soler

Hobby 1:765
Jumbo 1:235
Retail 1:766

Variation Red Refractor
Hobby 1:38,070
Jumbo 1:12,133
Retail 1:39,522

Variation SuperFractor
Hobby 1:215,728
Jumbo 1:51,564
Retail 1:158,088

Chrome Commencements
Hobby 1:48
Jumbo 1:12

Chrome Commencements Red Refractor
Hobby 1:19,035
Jumbo 1:5,893
Retail 1:19,761

Chrome Commencements SuperFractor
Hobby 1:92,455
Jumbo 1:29,465
Retail 1:105,392

Chrome Culminations
Hobby 1:288

Chrome Culminations Red Refractor
Hobby 1:6,812

Chrome Culminations SuperFractor
Hobby 1:34,062

Chrome Culminations Autograph
Hobby 1:3,785
Jumbo 1:770
Retail 1:13,174

Dual Autographs
Hobby 1:12,690
Jumbo 1:2,578
Retail 1:45,168

Dual Autographs Red Refractor
Hobby 1:24,892
Jumbo 1:5,156
Retail 1:79,044

Dual Autographs Printing Plate
Retail 1:10,539

Dual Autographs SuperFractor
Hobby 1:58,835
Jumbo 1:51,564

Future Stars
Hobby 1:12
Jumbo 1:4
Retail 1:12

Future Stars Gold Refractor
Hobby 1:1,915
Jumbo 1:589
Retail 1:1,916

Future Stars Orange Refractor
Hobby 1:3,829
Jumbo 1:1,179
Retail 1:3,809

Future Stars Red Refractor
Hobby 1:19,035
Jumbo 1:5,893
Retail 1:19,761

Future Stars SuperFractor
Hobby 1:49,783
Jumbo 1:34,376

Gallery of Greats
Hobby 1:24
Jumbo 1:8
Retail 1:24

Gallery of Greats Gold Refractor
Hobby 1:525
Jumbo 1:1,031

Gallery of Greats Orange Refractor
Hobby 1:1,091
Jumbo 1:677

Gallery of Greats Red Refractor
Hobby 1:5,485
Jumbo 1:8,250

Gallery of Greats SuperFractor
Hobby 1:28,138
Jumbo 1:34,376

Illustrious Autographs
Hobby 1:1,512
Jumbo 1:308
Retail 1:5,270

Illustrious Autographs Orange Refractors
Hobby 1:1,082

Illustrious Autographs Red Refractors
Jumbo 1:1,733

Illustrious Autographs Printing Plate
Retail 1:5,646

Illustrious Autographs SuperFractor
Hobby 1:34,062
Jumbo 1:41,251

Thrill of the Chase Die-Cut Autographs
Hobby 1:3,595
Jumbo 1:731
Retail 1:12,647

Thrill of the Chase Die-Cut Autographs Red Refractor
Hobby 1:24,892
Jumbo 1:5,156
Retail 1:79,044

Thrill of the Chase Die-Cut Autographs Printing Plate
Retail 1:8,783

Thrill of the Chase Die-Cut Autographs SuperFractor
Hobby 1:64,718
Jumbo 1:41,251

Triple Autographs
Jumbo 1:2,171

Triple Autographs Red Refractor
Jumbo 1:4,297

Triple Autographs SuperFractor
Jumbo 1:20,626

Triple Autographs Printing Plate
Jumbo 1:5,289

When you click on links to various merchants on this site, like eBay, and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission.

Ryan Cracknell

A collector for much of his life, Ryan focuses primarily on building sets, Montreal Expos and interesting cards. He's also got one of the most comprehensive collections of John Jaha cards in existence (not that there are a lot of them). Got a question, story idea or want to get in touch? You can reach him by email and through Twitter @tradercracks.

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  1. Isaac 17 August, 2015 at 15:40

    That is weird, why would Topps put gold autos only in retail and make it easier to find then most autos in hobby?? I thought Topps was going to start leaning away from retail, but it looks like they are trying to push it more, with this and Bowman Draft coming back out in retail, really interesting.

  2. Mike Pereira 17 August, 2015 at 20:42

    Just another sign Topps will crank up the presses and over produce just like in the 90’s. Just seems this hobby is being run more and more by wall street trained CEO’s with absolute no care or input from actual collectors.

    Pack hunters will be having a field day with this product. How hard is it to find a printing plate in a pack??? Not hard!!!!!!!

    Just another sign Topps screws hobby buyers. They’ll say it’s for people that don’t have LCS, but we don’t live in the 80’s. Everyone has the internet and can easily buy a box on ebay, so that excuse is pure bull and just a distraction from the greed of Topps.

  3. Richard Deien 17 August, 2015 at 22:33

    I’m all for retail pulling the same style cards as hobby boxes. The odds will always be worse in retail. What gets me is all the refractor variations . Enough is enough I’m so tired of so many color refractors. When cards numbered to /25 and /50 book at $3-$5 what are we chasing? Something has to give. Back to basics I’ve been saying it for years.

  4. David D 18 August, 2015 at 00:45

    As a “collector” of trading cards for 52 years- with a COLLECTION of more than 9.8 million cards, I am thrilled that Topps has recognized retail products-and “collectors”-like myself- with these products.
    I don’t have a hobby store nearby, but if I did I would hesitate to pay jacked up prices for cards that don’t carry their so called values. I collect for fun. Does anyone remember those days?- not to make a quick buck like so many others in the hobby!
    Retail brings me back to the 60’s- a time when collecting was fun and making sets important. A “quick buck” was not part of the plan back then- like it is for so many “investors”- like Mike P.- today!

  5. Larry 18 August, 2015 at 13:50

    If they could only figure out a way to keep pack searchers from finding which packs to buy I wouldn’t mind buying retail. But until they do I stay away. You can always tell every box at my Wal-Mart and Target has been thumbed through. It’s sad no one does anything about this.

  6. phillies_joe 19 August, 2015 at 11:54

    Right on Topps…..I purchase both, so am happy to see retail exclusives. I agree with the pack searchers problem pointed out by Larry & Mike, but myself, I could care less about printing plates, auto’s and relics. I want Variations and Parallels.

    Topps is a business……trying to revive retail makes great business sense. Yes, everyone has access to the internet in one form or another….but why do I need to wait 3-5 days to open stuff? Christmas morning would stink if Santa worked that way. Retail works just fine, especially if its a product I’m just buying for trading or hand putting a base set together. Also, I may not have the funds or want to purchase a couple of hobby boxes. Many times, I’ll get a couple of blasters , hangers and loose packs before taking the hobby box plunge. See if I like a product or not.

    Thnaks for the info…..always helps!

  7. ericg531 8 September, 2015 at 18:07

    Topps baffles me with some of their decisions. The 2013 Kris Bryant Draft auto in 2014 products. Putting Gold Refractor Autos of 2015 Topps Chrome in retail. The 2010 Finest Jason Heyward “10% of redemptions would be autographed” and I searched high and low for 4 years until finding a Gold Auto /5 on eBay then the seller tells me he got it as a REPLACEMENT for a totally different card Topps never made when the Gold Redemption unredeemed were selling for over $600 each for a CHANCE to get this rare autographed card that they never even gave to the people who were spending money like that for a chance to hit it.

    This year’s Allen & Ginter was so brutal it turned me off on that product FOREVER, and I usually like to pick up a red or at least framed auto of my favorite rookies every year the Jason Heyward Red Framed auto /10 is my personal favorite personal Ginter card I own. The local hobby shop was selling out of the product like crazy and I never saw them in stock so I got 6 blasters two different times at the local stores, which for those of you worried about pack searchers like I am blasters are your best bet, but anyway so out of those 12 blaster boxes I pulled…..a Buster Olney relic……and a basketball Sports writer (some Lowe guy)’s green shirt relic….no baseball autos, relics, short prints, just a big pile of base minis, a couple meaningless A&G back cards, and a whole lot of nothin’ with the highlight being two SPORTS WRITER relics. I felt fleeced and quit busting hobby boxes and retail until I can be sure that I’m not totally wasting my cash on junk, it feels like when I was a kid in the 90’s and there really weren’t any good cards but everyone was buying packs just for something to do.

    Now Topps Chrome came out, I just ended up buying the one card I really wanted off the ‘bay instead of wasting money on junk like Ginter I only wanted a Kris Bryant Blue Refractor auto because the Blue looks awesome with his uniform in the card, me and my son love Blue Refractors I have about every Jason Heyward blue card ever made, and then I got it in the mail today and had a real good look….I thought it looked a bit familiar well that’s because its the same photo they used in the 2015 Bowman Farm’s Finest Kris Bryant Mini!! Topps couldn’t even take a different picture for such a big card? Gee, I wonder what card they’ll send me a 2nd copy edition of for the 2015 Tier One Bronze Ink auto I am waiting for Topps to redeem? I was kinda surprised that they actually used a new photo for the 2015 Finest Orange Refractor auto I got redeemed last month (but Topps did send me #1/25 on that one so I can’t complain about that card).

    For big rookie cards they need to stop recycling old photos! I had an issue with that practice earlier when I busted the Maikel Franco Gold Ink auto 1/1 out of 2015 Tier One…Its the fielding photo. Then I looked on eBay and they had a rehashed 2014 Bowman photo on another Gold Ink Auto 1/1 from the same set I couldn’t believe they’d make ANOTHER 1/1….but hey at least mine is a fresh photo that hasn’t been used yet. They may rip it off and make ten other cards by next season labled RC though using the fielding pose so I can’t even claim a victory on that one yet….Topps sure does like making waves and making collectors disgusted a lot though I noticed that through my childhood and adulthood as a baseball card collector…NO GOOD TOPPS! Do something NEW for once! Stop reusing old photos! Take pictures its not hard you just press a button on a camera!

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