[0mattinglyalexander0]

Big shots, Mantle, Ruth, Aaron, Joe D., Cobb, Wagner, Speaker (Many more).... you get the point...
I don't believe they will go down much if any, but I don't believe they will increase in value much either.
I know WE love them. I know WE desire them... but most of their carsd are at their pinnacle.
Unless... no. I started to give a scenerio... but these days I don't want to give anyone any ideas.

[ricelynnevans75]

I'm somewhat curious to know exactly what vintage issues people are talking about in regards to values that "continue to go down" and/or drop and what reference, other than a Beckett guide, is being used.

[beatles guy]

You won't see much of a change in Beckett because I don't think they follow the vintage market that closely. Too worried about the glut of shiny cards coming out. If you follow auction houses and even Ebay you will see differences in prices all the time. Bottom line is while mid-grade stuff may have reached it's peak, there will always be a premium with higher grade vintage. Any money poured into modern stuff as an investment is a poor choice, unless you are going to turn it around very quickly. Created scarcity does not match real scarcity.

[katieneack]

It seems to me that the overall Beckett prices of vintage has dropped somewhat over the years. I truly believe this is due to grading becoming so standard for vintage cards now. The Beckett prices are for ungraded raw copies, so it makes sense that these have dropped, because noone is paying a premium for ungraded vintage. However, graded vintage cards are seem to be bringing in higher prices than ever (in my opinion). So, has the price really "dropped" or do you just have to have a graded version to realize it's full value?

[muz0]

I believe that vintage cards will never go down in value and i'm talkin pre wwII. As time goes by, these cards and the people who collect them will become less and less, almost forgotten until someone brings em up again. It will always fluxuate but i cannot see these cards being worthless..

Until people stop caring/believing and cyborgs take over the world.

[mickey7mantle7]

Primarily, its usually supply and demand that has the biggest effect on the vintage stuff. Especially when they have been graded.

[baseballmason]

I'm somewhat curious to know exactly what vintage issues people are talking about in regards to values that "continue to go down" and/or drop and what reference, other than a Beckett guide, is being used.

In my original post I mentioned that I looked at a Beckett from '06, '09 and '12 on the pricing for a '49 Bowman Musial. The price hasn't changed in those years. I have no indication of pricing going up or down. My question was does everyone think that this type of pricing will remain flat or if in another 10 or so years there might be a price change. I have no intention of selling (I collect for the pleasure). This was strictly something I noticed - no up or down since at least 2006.

[dkotart]

In my original post I mentioned that I looked at a Beckett from '06, '09 and '12 on the pricing for a '49 Bowman Musial. The price hasn't changed in those years. I have no indication of pricing going up or down. My question was does everyone think that this type of pricing will remain flat or if in another 10 or so years there might be a price change. I have no intention of selling (I collect for the pleasure). This was strictly something I noticed - no up or down since at least 2006.

Imo, I think you need to use a broader span other than just 6 years to determine your findings. I just compared the 49 Musial from the OPG to an older issue of Beckett (1998) and the price difference is $100. However Musial's RC from 48 has no change in value. My question is how is this possible? His RC card value has not changed in 14 years but his second year card has increased by 20%.

[Vols-1]

Prices will probably remain stagnant because of the lack of interest. I looked at the most watched graded cards by eBay users and about 85% were modern cards(post 1980). And most of those were Mickey Mantle.

[ricelynnevans75]

Prices will probably remain stagnant because of the lack of interest. I looked at the most watched graded cards by eBay users and about 85% were modern cards(post 1980). And most of those were Mickey Mantle.

Lack of interest? You need to look outside of this site (primarily modern collectors) and what people are "watching" on ebay.

I can't say I really understand the argument of not wanting to collect cards of players that you never saw play. At least in my eyes, I find it boring to collect a card of a player I can turn on the TV and watch play. Seeing what many pre-war cards sell for, those of players who many didn't see play, I don't really understand the basis for this argument.
http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/auct...index.html
http://www.hugginsandscott.com/pdf/Janua...alized.pdf

I do believe that higher grade cards will sell for more due to people wanting a nicer looking card and not having to worry about a card that's been altered. Luckily, I like my G-EX cards depending on the year.
I don't see the lower grades going down much though, if at all. I can't and don't really see why they would go down. It's all based on supply and demand. Many vintage collectors started out as modern collectors and gravitated towards the vintage. Those are the people that will continue to refill the ranks. Will the ranks of modern collectors always outnumber the ranks of vintage collectors? Absolutely. I don't see how one can argue against that. However, much like regular antiques, there are always people wanting the vintage stuff and unless a huge find is located of some issue, the quantity available is not going to be increasing anytime soon unless suddenly everybody that is a vintage collector drops dead within the same time-frame.

There is a vintage forum that I know a few people here know of that people buy/sell regularly on. There are a good handful that would never consider selling cards on ebay again because there is zero protection for sellers and it's become a farce. Those cards, and it doesn't have to be a HOFer to be a "bigger" card, are usually found in serious auction houses because the people wanting to sell don't have to worry about games being played.

---

In my original post I mentioned that I looked at a Beckett from '06, '09 and '12 on the pricing for a '49 Bowman Musial. The price hasn't changed in those years. I have no indication of pricing going up or down. My question was does everyone think that this type of pricing will remain flat or if in another 10 or so years there might be a price change. I have no intention of selling (I collect for the pleasure). This was strictly something I noticed - no up or down since at least 2006.

I think it will go up but it's not going to be anything really drastic in a short amount of time. When I started my '55 Topps set 13 years ago, some of the HOFers I picked up were in Beckett for less "value" and almost all have gone up since. With Musial being who he is, it's bound to go up again but I just wouldn't hold your breath waiting for it. You're going to see less movement in a price guide because there are less for sale as opposed to modern cards where the market is usually full of certain cards and the prices seem to move week to week.

---

I believe that vintage cards will never go down in value and i'm talkin pre wwII. As time goes by, these cards and the people who collect them will become less and less, almost forgotten until someone brings em up again. It will always fluxuate but i cannot see these cards being worthless..

Until people stop caring/believing and cyborgs take over the world.

---

Imo, I think you need to use a broader span other than just 6 years to determine your findings. I just compared the 49 Musial from the OPG to an older issue of Beckett (1998) and the price difference is $100. However Musial's RC from 48 has no change in value. My question is how is this possible? His RC card value has not changed in 14 years but his second year card has increased by 20%.

I'm guessing here but I would think that the '49 Bowman set is more popular than the '48 Bowman set. It's got a much better checklist to it and (guessing again) I think that more people like that the cards are color as opposed to B&W. Then it just falls into supply/demand.

The '48 could change though. Some vintage sets, for whatever reason don't have much interest and then for some reason the set gets hot and prices go up. If anything, it's remained consistent, better than going down.

I hope all of this made some sense. I wanted to get some stuff in before Alcatraz started.