[ZSDOne]

According to Panini, there are 1,461 numbered parallels of each card in hobby boxes.  There are 440 cards - that leads to 642,840 numbered cards.  They are claiming 10 numbered parallels per hobby box leaving 64,284 hobby boxes.  

Hobby boxes reportedly have 4 Silver Prizm per box meaning 257,136 Silver Prizm in hobby boxes alone - with 440 cards in the set that is 584.4 Silver Prizms per card just in hobby boxes (and we know that historically they have not been difficult pulls in retail - the actual number is probably over 1000 per card).

 Now this presumes that the claim of 10 numbered cards per hobby box is accurate and that there are just the hobby exclusive parallels - however, from those numbers alone it is already becoming clear that 2021 Prizm is definitely in the cavaet emptor category.

Add in all of hte unnumbered parallels (and whether they might be sneaking into hobby boxes) and it is absolutely clear that there is going to be a ton of this stuff - commons and even rookies are going to be printed by the thousands.

I am a Prizm fan -  I used to always buy at least one hobby box of Prizm and some retail - it was a nice break when hobby boxes were in the $100 range (it's a low end set people!), but no thanks to this overproduced overpriced junk.

[jaderock]

I am a Prizm fan... but no thanks to this overproduced overpriced junk.

I have the same feeling as you...my only wish for Christmas this year is...please do NOT have Mark Brunell on the checklist.

Brunell is currently on the Classics checklist and he has nearly 60 cards to chase (base, insert and parallels) and they get confusing! Regular Edition, Premium Edition, Premium Edition H2, Retail, Target, Walmart, Fanatics, DBN exclusives, etc - omg!

[CMCFan22]

And how many of them will be off-center/mis-cut? Probably most of them.

[jplarson]

If we thought 2020 Mosaic or 2020 Select was overproduced.... here comes 2021 Prizm! To ZSD's point, the quantity of silver/holo/prizms in hobby boxes are MERELY for hobby boxes. They are a popular parallel and historically show up in all formats. So we'll see em in retail like cello packs, hanger boxes, Target blaster, WalMart blaster, likely Fanatics blaster, Target Mega, WalMart Mega, Fanatics Mega, Hobby Hybrid H2, probably the Asian T-Mall, First Off The Line FOTL, and who knows what other formats.

With that massive of a checklist, which by the way is somehow MORE than either Donruss or SCORE is just insane! 330 veterans and 110 rookies. Word is 2 rookies per hobby pack, 12 packs per box. So you'll be getting 24 rookies in each box, or about 22% of all rookies. That means on average you'll get 1 of the top QBs per box.

12 cards per pack, 12 packs per box. 144 cards in a box. 2 autographs, 5 inserts, 4 silver prizms, 10 serial numbered prizms, and 24 rookies. That leaves 99 cards as veterans.

Snakeskin parallels are 1 per hobby case. As ZSD's math proves, that makes for 64,284 boxes. There are 12 boxes per case. 64,284 / 12 = 5,357 cases. Now, 5,357 cases / 440 = 12.175. Maybe there's a couple cases which have more than 1 Snakeskin parallel, who knows. But you can mentally figure 12 Snakeskins per player, making them a little less rare than the Gold Prizms #/10.

330 veterans and 32 teams in the NFL. About 10.3 veterans per team. Since no one wants to see the 10th best Houston Texan or the 10th best Chicago Bear (I mean, you'd do something like David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith, Eddie Jackson... maybe Akiem Hicks and Darnell Mooney to make 7.... Cole Kmet and Any Dalton to 9..... then I guess Jaylon Johnson as 10?) so we're probably going to be including retired players.

Using the Jacksonville Jaguars as an example, and remembering this is the 330 card veteran list and no rookies, figure we'd see 2-3 retired guys? Maybe 4? Who are the 10 best current Jaguar players? Remember Panini started work on this months ago.

RB James Robinson (2nd year break out player)
WR Laviska Shenault (2nd year high draft pick)
WR Marvin Jones (known name in a new uniform)
WR DJ Chark (2019 Pro Bowler who had a decent but injury filled 2020)
DE Josh Allen (2019 Pro Bowler and best edge rusher)
LB Myles Jack (one of the "older" Jaguar veterans who is a known name)
CB Shaquill Griffin (former good Seahawk in a new uniform)

Really no one after that. Dipping into franchise history your top collectible guys include Jimmy Smith, Fred Taylor, Mark Brunell, Brad Meester, Maurice Jones-Drew, Tony Boselli, David Garrard, Keenan McCardell..... Sorry Jade, but I only count 2 QBs in that list and Garrard isn't exactly a guy folks are clamoring for. Unless they go Smith, Taylor, Jones-Drew, I think Brunell and his 60 different parallels will be set to go once again.