[bonds20001]

I think the print runs for each of those guys' flagship RCs (2011 Update, 2008 Update, 2019 Topps, 2014 Update, etc.) are significantly lower than what we're seeing now.  

Just based on the odds of pulling a gold card from a hobby pack, the real concern probably lies with 2020 Update going forward. Here are the pack odds going back to Kershaw's RC card season.

2008 Topps Series 1 1:9
2008 Topps Series 2 1:5
2008 Topps Updates & Highlights 1:5
2009 Topps Series 1 1:7
2009 Topps Series 2 1:5
2009 Topps Updates & Highlights 1:3
2010 Topps Series 1 1:6
2010 Topps Series 2 1:6
2010 Topps Update 1:6
2011 Topps 1:8
2011 Topps Update 1:3
2012 Topps Series 1 -
2012 Topps Series 2 -
2012 Topps Update 1:5
2013 Topps Series 1 1:9
2013 Topps Series 2 -
2013 Topps Update 1:6
2014 Topps Series 1 1:9
2014 Topps Series 2 1:4
2014 Topps Update -
2015 Topps Series 1 -
2015 Topps Series 2 -
2015 Topps Update -
2016 Topps Series 1 1:11
2016 Topps Series 2 -
2016 Topps Update -
2017 Topps Series 1 1:15
2017 Topps Series 2 1:8
2017 Topps Update 1:8
2018 Topps Series 1 1:18
2018 Topps Series 2 1:10
2018 Topps Update 1:11
2019 Topps Series 1 1:5
2019 Topps Series 2 1:6
2019 Topps Update 1:8
2020 Topps Series 1 1:14
2020 Topps Series 2 1:9
2020 Topps Update 1:16
2021 Topps Series 1 1:27

WOW!! Thanks for the info and the work involved!! Appreciate it!!!

[jbissell]

I think the print runs for each of those guys' flagship RCs (2011 Update, 2008 Update, 2019 Topps, 2014 Update, etc.) are significantly lower than what we're seeing now.  

Just based on the odds of pulling a gold card from a hobby pack, the real concern probably lies with 2020 Update going forward. Here are the pack odds going back to Kershaw's RC card season.

2008 Topps Series 1 1:9
2008 Topps Series 2 1:5
2008 Topps Updates & Highlights 1:5
2009 Topps Series 1 1:7
2009 Topps Series 2 1:5
2009 Topps Updates & Highlights 1:3
2010 Topps Series 1 1:6
2010 Topps Series 2 1:6
2010 Topps Update 1:6
2011 Topps 1:8
2011 Topps Update 1:3
2012 Topps Series 1 -
2012 Topps Series 2 -
2012 Topps Update 1:5
2013 Topps Series 1 1:9
2013 Topps Series 2 -
2013 Topps Update 1:6
2014 Topps Series 1 1:9
2014 Topps Series 2 1:4
2014 Topps Update -
2015 Topps Series 1 -
2015 Topps Series 2 -
2015 Topps Update -
2016 Topps Series 1 1:11
2016 Topps Series 2 -
2016 Topps Update -
2017 Topps Series 1 1:15
2017 Topps Series 2 1:8
2017 Topps Update 1:8
2018 Topps Series 1 1:18
2018 Topps Series 2 1:10
2018 Topps Update 1:11
2019 Topps Series 1 1:5
2019 Topps Series 2 1:6
2019 Topps Update 1:8
2020 Topps Series 1 1:14
2020 Topps Series 2 1:9
2020 Topps Update 1:16
2021 Topps Series 1 1:27

Interesting! Thats pretty revealing!

[Phillies_Joe]

Thanks Jared! This is awesome. One thing to remember is that Redux is available this year for the 70 year anniversary. Impacts the number of inserts per pack and there are a lot of redux base - I opened a case of tins. I think this may be why the golds odds have increased to 1:27. We will have to see - all I know that the golds that I have pulled are the cheaper ones....LOL.

[ZSDOne]

This is an interesting comment. Based on your assertions above, are we eventually going to see even RCs of Trout, Kershaw, Tatis, DeGrom, et al..crater by 50% or more? What about the recent boom in 80s base rookies?

I expect 1980s Rookies to stay popular even after the current new card boom ends - that is for a couple of factors

1) The 1980s started more than 40 years ago and ended more than 30 years ago - that means that the kids who grew up watching baseball in the 1980s and 1990s are now going to be forming the base of the adult collector base with disposable income - that means that more and more the money base of collectors are people whose favorite players are from the 1980s.     

2) 1980s cards are very condition sensitive - while many of them were made, many of them were printed very off center - that old card stock gets damaged very easily.  And as someone who was a child buying cards in teh 1980s, we weren't buying cards and puttign the good ones immediately in sleeves and top loaders like they are today - you go to a card shop, and the box of cards was literally a box of cards you could flip through - at least I put all of my cards in large boxes - you might even put a rubber band around your cards -  a way to pretty much guarantee corner dings and dings along the side.  There was still gum in the packs that damaged some cards.  The printing and card stock has improved by leaps and bounds since the 1980s.   In some ways, the 1980s was the last "old school" vintage decade for cards - cards from the 1980s are much more similar to cards from the 1950s than they are to the cards of today (and why not, a card from 1981 is closer to 1952 in time than a card from 1989 is to today) 

Those factors mean that 1980s rookies are going to be in demand - collectors who were children in the 1980s are going to want to get high grade rookie cards of their favorite players and the cards that appeal to the most older collectors will money and as important stability in income definitely have a nice high floor.

The newer established stars probably will lose some value, but someone like Trout who is already becoming a legendary player and as I understand his rookie card was relatively short printed should have a very high floor.

[jack pfiester]

I expect 1980s Rookies to stay popular even after the current new card boom ends - that is for a couple of factors

1) The 1980s started more than 40 years ago and ended more than 30 years ago - that means that the kids who grew up watching baseball in the 1980s and 1990s are now going to be forming the base of the adult collector base with disposable income - that means that more and more the money base of collectors are people whose favorite players are from the 1980s.     

2) 1980s cards are very condition sensitive - while many of them were made, many of them were printed very off center - that old card stock gets damaged very easily.  And as someone who was a child buying cards in teh 1980s, we weren't buying cards and puttign the good ones immediately in sleeves and top loaders like they are today - you go to a card shop, and the box of cards was literally a box of cards you could flip through - at least I put all of my cards in large boxes - you might even put a rubber band around your cards -  a way to pretty much guarantee corner dings and dings along the side.  There was still gum in the packs that damaged some cards.  The printing and card stock has improved by leaps and bounds since the 1980s.   In some ways, the 1980s was the last "old school" vintage decade for cards - cards from the 1980s are much more similar to cards from the 1950s than they are to the cards of today (and why not, a card from 1981 is closer to 1952 in time than a card from 1989 is to today) 

Those factors mean that 1980s rookies are going to be in demand - collectors who were children in the 1980s are going to want to get high grade rookie cards of their favorite players and the cards that appeal to the most older collectors will money and as important stability in income definitely have a nice high floor.

The newer established stars probably will lose some value, but someone like Trout who is already becoming a legendary player and as I understand his rookie card was relatively short printed should have a very high floor.

That is what's driving up the price of junk wax/sets.  People are opening them hoping to get pack fresh cards that will grade high, but that is not guaranteed.  

I recently opened a 1989 Fleer Glossy set and the Griffey is 80/20 centering at best and has a dinged corner.  

[jbissell]

I expect 1980s Rookies to stay popular even after the current new card boom ends - that is for a couple of factors

1) The 1980s started more than 40 years ago and ended more than 30 years ago - that means that the kids who grew up watching baseball in the 1980s and 1990s are now going to be forming the base of the adult collector base with disposable income - that means that more and more the money base of collectors are people whose favorite players are from the 1980s.     

2) 1980s cards are very condition sensitive - while many of them were made, many of them were printed very off center - that old card stock gets damaged very easily.  And as someone who was a child buying cards in teh 1980s, we weren't buying cards and puttign the good ones immediately in sleeves and top loaders like they are today - you go to a card shop, and the box of cards was literally a box of cards you could flip through - at least I put all of my cards in large boxes - you might even put a rubber band around your cards -  a way to pretty much guarantee corner dings and dings along the side.  There was still gum in the packs that damaged some cards.  The printing and card stock has improved by leaps and bounds since the 1980s.   In some ways, the 1980s was the last "old school" vintage decade for cards - cards from the 1980s are much more similar to cards from the 1950s than they are to the cards of today (and why not, a card from 1981 is closer to 1952 in time than a card from 1989 is to today) 

Those factors mean that 1980s rookies are going to be in demand - collectors who were children in the 1980s are going to want to get high grade rookie cards of their favorite players and the cards that appeal to the most older collectors will money and as important stability in income definitely have a nice high floor.

The newer established stars probably will lose some value, but someone like Trout who is already becoming a legendary player and as I understand his rookie card was relatively short printed should have a very high floor.

Excellent insight. Thanks!