[btrav13]

Ok, so after a long time off I'm back. With the way the product is now I have two questions:

1.) Is there a website that publishes the odds of every hit for all the products this year without me having to go read the box?

2.) Secondly, would it be smarter once you found out, for example, that 2019 Topps Finest has the best odds of something you like, we'll call it X (and X could be you like memorabilia, or you like on-card autos). If you've found down that the best place to get X that you really want is on, again Topps finest as an example...would you not be better off ONLY buying boxes or those cards?

[DrMitchJ]

There are odds on the boxes and odds on the packs and odds on the blasters and so many different odds that you'd have to be a mathematical genius to figure it all out and calculate which is the best product.

Now, to make life easier, you know that in a Jumbo HTA TOPPS flagship (series 1,2 or Update) there is 1 auto (sticker or on-card), 1 relic, 1 manu relic per $100 box (approx)
Gypsy Queen has 2 on card autos and 1 relic per box and it's usually $90 box.
So if you're an auto collector, you will be guaranteed 1 auto for $45 in GQ vs 1 auto for $100 in Flagship
If you're a relic collector you're getting 1 relic for $90 in GQ vs 1 relic or manu for $50 in Flagship.
That's about the best way I figure things.

I don't know of a website that breaks it all down, but if you look at Blowout cards for example, they list the products they are selling and a list of the hits and the possible teams/players in that product.
So, if you are only really looking to pick up Brewers on-card autos (for example) and you look at the hits and there's only one Brew-Crew player signing in that product, you know your odds are astronomically against you.

I once calculated that for the most bang for your buck, a box of GQ was the best. They only have on-card autos, 2 per box, 1 relic and each box has a box-topper hit that can be pretty great sometimes.

[btrav13]

Nice to know, thank you! I was wondering if there was a way to get Excel to calculate it for me, but there are so many parallels and auto's and relics and relics+auto's. So then I thought "why not just stick with ONE thing only because every time I buy a box that's one less box on the market instead of buying so many different brands". It was just a random, late night thought.

[DrMitchJ]

Nice to know, thank you! I was wondering if there was a way to get Excel to calculate it for me, but there are so many parallels and auto's and relics and relics+auto's. So then I thought "why not just stick with ONE thing only because every time I buy a box that's one less box on the market instead of buying so many different brands". It was just a random, late night thought.

It's not a bad random, late night thought from a probability POV. Just that there are so many boxes and even if you just concentrated on Hobby boxes, there are so many blasters and random packs out there, too. It's like scratch off tickets ... if you stick to one product, each time you increase your odds, but the big winning ticket might not even exist in your state, so you could spend 1 million dollars on tickets and never hit the big payout. You're better off going to eBay and buying the card you want than playing the odds.

[btrav13]

It's not a bad random, late night thought from a probability POV. Just that there are so many boxes and even if you just concentrated on Hobby boxes, there are so many blasters and random packs out there, too. It's like scratch off tickets ... if you stick to one product, each time you increase your odds, but the big winning ticket might not even exist in your state, so you could spend 1 million dollars on tickets and never hit the big payout. You're better off going to eBay and buying the card you want than playing the odds.

Yea, that's very true. I've even considered that. The only reason you open packs is the excitement I guess. But it seems so hard to get your money back off the stuff you don't want.

[kevcalif]

https://twitter.com/brentandbecca?lang=en

They open a massive amount of product and post lots of info about what they find. Should give a good idea about how hard it is to hit what you are looking for in each set.

[btrav13]

https://twitter.com/brentandbecca?lang=en

They open a massive amount of product and post lots of info about what they find. Should give a good idea about how hard it is to hit what you are looking for in each set.

That's awesome! Thank you!