[Semitar]

The whole idea of getting a set in a box is pretty much out the door these days. Even with something low-end and basic like hoops, you will need at least two boxes to complete set.

I didn't know that you most likely need two boxes to get a full set. That's good to know.

In regards to getting that one card that exceeds what you paid for the box .... that's the gamble. No company will guarantee that every box will contain a "bone fide, big-dollar hit". That just doesn't happen. Like i said, some people seem to be hitting the big card with everything they buy but that's just pure luck on their behalf.

I understand that some players have value "out the gate" like the 2003 NBA draft class. Let me use Giannis Antetokounmpo for example.

I could be wrong, but I can't imagine his card had any special value when the cards were first processed. I imagined that his cards became valuable when he panned out to become a hot commodity. So I was thinking, why not go buy the set that a given hot card was in and the card pays for the set. Is that thinking wrong?

As to suggestions .... i'm a pure hobbiest by nature, so .... I'd suggest you start out working on sets - stuff like, hoops, donruss is a good place to start. If you're happy spending a bit more money then maybe even add in Prizm or prestige to that list. With those products you're getting value for your dollar and you will - on average - get out of the box (es) what you spent. Everything else where you're getting like 6 packs or less per box .... it's a pot-luck draw if you'll break even - meaning, you could just as easily get a dud box as get a top box. I'm making this suggestion so as to make it easy to get into the hobby.

One thing I can't understand is that outside of a lower print run, what else drives some cards being valuable and others not being as valuable. I thought I could make the process easier by determine what the more premium brands were and considering only focusing on those. Is that sound? Because if it is, I'd like to know what the premium brands are. I don't have a real focus yet outside of knowing that I am trying to determine what Giannis Antetokounmpo card to go after before they get too high. I was thinking to buy a set to guarantee it but I will wait for your feedback.