I stopped by the LCS and started talking about the owner about the NIL products and what it will do with rookies and the draft picks products - as I noted, just about any Power 5 high level quarterback recruit is now getting cards as soon as or even before high school - this went on some before (the Army All American Cards) but it is really accelerating - in Leaf Draft this year so far I have pulled autographs of a wide receiver who just enrolled in USC as well as a redshirt freshman running back from Alabama - I've got multiple quarterbacks who have yet to start and barely played in college so far - sometimes those can pay off (look at Anthony Richardson who I picked up a Leaf Draft auto of for $3 for my Gators collection - Richardson's autos now are going for much more than $3 now that he's a Top 5 NFL pick who went to what appears to be a favorable location for his development) - but now even the UDFA quarterbacks already had multiple autos - and next year's drafted players will have 2-3 years of NIL autos - and soon you will see high level high school recruits with 3-4 years. And many are going to be college licensed (something like Chronicles Draft Picks will seemingly have little value)
Maybe the NFL "Rookie" cards will have value, but it's hard to get that excited when players are going to already have 3-4 years worth of autograph cards out there - and it's likely that by the time they reach rookie year the autographs will have declined in quality (compare early 2017 Mahomes autos with what he signs now for a good example) or players will start moving towards just signing initials.
Of course, in a way I like the NIL autos because they are often quite cheap - yes, I'm going to pick up $3 autos of quarterbacks and offensive skill players who are still in college when I find them - if that player turns out to be a First Round pick and especially if they are good in the NFL it is definitely worth it. If it isn't, well, it's low risk. What I wouldn't be doing is paying lots of money for one.
Maybe the NFL "Rookie" cards will have value, but it's hard to get that excited when players are going to already have 3-4 years worth of autograph cards out there - and it's likely that by the time they reach rookie year the autographs will have declined in quality (compare early 2017 Mahomes autos with what he signs now for a good example) or players will start moving towards just signing initials.
Of course, in a way I like the NIL autos because they are often quite cheap - yes, I'm going to pick up $3 autos of quarterbacks and offensive skill players who are still in college when I find them - if that player turns out to be a First Round pick and especially if they are good in the NFL it is definitely worth it. If it isn't, well, it's low risk. What I wouldn't be doing is paying lots of money for one.