[dunnere]

So, the news is out that Matt Kenseth will not be racing in the 20 car for JGR in 2018. The word is that this is sponsorship-driven, to move Kenseth out in favor of rising star Erik Jones.

So, where does this put Kenseth? I have to think that he is going to be in a ride in somewhere in 2018, and I'm decidedly undecided as to where I think he might land...

For that matter, where do a lot of drivers end up? There could quite a few moves...

First, there is an obvious opening at HMS with Dale Jr. retiring. So, could Kenseth land the 88 car? Well, maybe yes, but I think that HMS is going to fill that ride with Alex Bowman or William Byron ( I read somewhere that Axalta wants to keep its relationship with the 88 car and with Byron...and money talks).

Of course, the 5 car is probably going to be available, as well...so that leaves Kasey Kahne without a ride, and if HMS can get all of the sponsorship slots filled, it is still a place for Kenseth to land.

But, let's not forget that Kurt Busch is not guaranteed a SHR ride next year, and neither is Danica Patrick, for that matter. For the 41, if it can keep the Monster Energy sponsorship, Kurt could drive it another year, but with Erik Jones going to JGR, that opens a spot at Furniture Row, and Kurt raced there before...

As for the 10...let's be honest, Bowyer is running the Nature's Basket logo in New Hampshire, and it appears the Danica experiment is ending as she is no longer able to bring any meaningful sponsorship dollars in...I think the closest Danica gets to NASCAR in 2018 is in Ricky Stenhouse's pit/trailer.

So, my guess is that Kenseth moves into the 41 car for SHR, Kurt Busch gets to move to FRR, and Danica and Kasey Kahne are out...there are too many young guys that are too good (i.e., Darrell Wallace) and too few good sponsors to support mediocrity...SHR downsizes the 10 car, and HMS might contract to three teams, as well...

And don't forget about Ryan Blaney...he's been racing for Woods Brothers, but he is really a Penske guy, and I have read that Penske wants him back (winning will do that, you know...). So, a third Penske team? Or does Keselowski not re-sign? Oh, boy, no way, but Blaney fits that #2 Miller Lite sponsorship pretty well...

Thoughts?

And I'm sure none of it will play out like I think it will, but then again...

[spazmatastic]

I've been thinking about the NASCAR options for 2018 since Dale Jr. announced his retirement! I think Kenseth announcing that he won't be in the #20 car was his push to get into the #88 or #5, or possibly a new RFR or SHR car. He hasn't raced in a Chevy in his career and might benefit from that change to HMS. It was a boost to him when he left Ford for Toyota. But he could be vying for a spot in a Ford car too (RFR and SHR)! DeWalt could follow him to whatever team he goes to b/c they followed him from the #17 RFR Ford car to the #20 JGR Toyota car. Sponsors like to stick with a driver if their contract allows that. But sponsors will stick with a team if they don't have that option. Why do you think Home Depot isn't a sponsor anymore? When Smoke left JGR, HD filled out their contract and bailed out of NASCAR. Monster Energy might still sponsor a car in 2018 b/c they got a sweet deal with NASCAR for the naming-rights of the Cup Series, so they have money to spend. I'm more curious as to what RFR will do in 2018 than any other team. They can bring back the #16 that Biffle vacated right before the 2017 season and put Ryan Reed in the car with his guaranteed sponsor of Lilly Diabetes, if they want to pay a bit more. Bubba Wallace WILL have a ride somewhere in the Xfinity or Cup Series in 2018! Some team will make it happen. He actually could end up in the #77 Furniture Row car. Furniture Row has a charter for that car that they bought to get Erik Jones into MENCS. If they can't field that car in 2018, NASCAR can sell the charter to another team! Bubba already knows how to race in a Toyota b/c he was brought into the top ranks in a KBR truck.

All-in with my 2018 predictions:
I guarantee some of these won't be right though! (UPDATED 7/26/17)

* Kenseth drives the #5 car, unless Byron wins the 2017 NXS title.
* JGR drops to 3 cars, instead of 4 (UNLESS Carl Edwards comes back - not likely). The #11, #18 and #19 stay the same. #20 car is dropped. (Kahne could actually be an option for the #20 car though.)
* RPM (Richard Petty Motorsports) adds a second car back to the stable (replacing the Ambrose car they ditched a few years ago when he went back to Australian Super V8) and the #45 or #9 car is driven by Bubba Wallace.
* RFR brings the #16 car back to the Cup Series with Ryan Reed and puts Bubba Wallace back in an NXS car. This idea is purely driven by getting sponsorship though.
* SHR dumps a car and goes to a 3-car operation. Whether that is Danica or Kurt is a toss-up, but Harvick and Bowyer will return in the #4 & #14 cars.
* Front Row Motorsports and BK Racing will change every driver throughout the entire season in every car they own!!! GUARANTEED!
* RCR won't change a thing about their drivers or sponsors in 2018! (OOPS, got that wrong! Menard moving to #21.)
* Team Penske doesn't change anything about the #2 and #22 either!
* Danica WILL race in the MENCS in 2018, but it might not be for SHR. 2018 will probably be her final year in the Cup Series. She won't care though. She's been preparing for her exit from a race-car for several years now. GoDaddy leaving and Nature's Bakery trying to get out of their contract after only a year were signs of things to come for her. But she has a clothing line, a winery, and fitness videos that will keep making money for her after she gets out of any race-car. And she could always do what Smoke does now: appear in races on really small local tracks and help raise ticket sells or prices, as well as selling merchandise at the tracks. It differs only in the fact that Smoke actually owns some tracks and Danica doesn't so far.
* Ryan Blaney stays in the #21 Wood Bros. car and the sponsorship stays the same. That is a guarantee! Ford and Motorcraft will not drop sponsorship of that car and the team will not drop Blaney. Ryan will also not bail out on the Wood Brothers. They picked HIM as their driver to come back into full-time racing after having Trevor Bayne run the part-time schedule for a half-dozen years. That hurt Trevor's career, but helped Wood Bros. get back into contention in MENCS. (OOPS, got that wrong too. BUT I forgot Blaney was a loaner from Penske AND that Penske was adding a 3rd car.)

[wilsonsportscards]

This will be interesting to see how this plays out. I have one for you. I think Carl Edwards will be in the 88 car. I think Kahne will end up at SHR. I think his dirt racing roots will get him Danica's ride. I think Kenseth would end up in the 5 car.....It will be a very interesting August as they start to release some of the changes.

[spazmatastic]

We can stop wondering who drives the #88 next year. HMS announced today that it will be Alex Bowman.

[dunnere]

We can stop wondering who drives the #88 next year. HMS announced today that it will be Alex Bowman.

OK, so, for me, not really a surprise there. And Nationwaide renewed its sponsorship and Axalta added two more races to their sponsorship package, as well...

So, I didn't think Kenseth would get that ride, and he didn't.

And I will be surprised if anything new comes out until after The Chase is set, at least...

[corbins sports cards]

think bowman will do very well in that car. probably need to make a couple purchases of his before next season.

[spazmatastic]

I heard today that Bowman turned down several offers for a full-time ride for 2017 b/c he thought he would get the #88 next year. I guess he didn't want to blemish the record and opinions he gained in the 88 last year by driving for an uncompetitive team.
Now the question for HMS is who will drive the #5 in 2018. I'm sure that it will be Byron in 2019. If this year's sponsors stay for next year, Kahne might get another year in the car.

[spazmatastic]

MORE DRIVER CHANGES...

* Blaney goes from the #21 to the #12 Penske car next year.
* Menard goes from #27 RCR car to #21 next year.

So, what are the chances that Kenseth signs with RCR to drive the #27? Also, who will sponsor that car? It would be odd that Menard's will stay on for the #27 without Paul driving it. Do they even continue to sponsor a car? The Wood Brothers don't need that sponsorship due to their long-standing alliance with Ford and Motorcraft. More questions created!

[dunnere]

MORE DRIVER CHANGES...

* Blaney goes from the #21 to the #12 Penske car next year.
* Menard goes from #27 RCR car to #21 next year.

So, what are the chances that Kenseth signs with RCR to drive the #27? Also, who will sponsor that car? It would be odd that Menard's will stay on for the #27 without Paul driving it. Do they even continue to sponsor a car? The Wood Brothers don't need that sponsorship due to their long-standing alliance with Ford and Motorcraft. More questions created!

So, Blaney moves to Penske. Well, I hate to say "I told you so," but I told you so...Penske adds a team, as Keselowski pens the long-term extension (which Logano also did earlier in the year), and that team becomes perfectly rounded out...

As for Paul Menard to Woods brothers, I did not see that coming, but as for sponsorship, "Menards will sponsor the No. 21 Ford for 22 Monster Energy Series races. Additional sponsorship, including plans for long-time partner Motorcraft/Quick Lane, will be announced at a later date, the team announced in a press release."

So, if Kenseth can find a sponsor to go onto the 27, then I could see him landing there, but I highly doubt it. RCR already has Brandon Jones and his ready-made Rheem sponsorship tied up in Xfinity...do not be surprised if that 27 ride gets filled by him...you heard it here first (LOL).

As for Kasey Kahne...I think his win and spot in the Chase keeps him in the 5 for another year, but I agree that 2019 it will be William Byron.

And I am still holding that Kenseth will be in the 41 and Kurt Busch will be back with Furniture Row...and Danica will be on the outside looking in without a ride...

---

And all of you guys need to stop thinking about loyalty and history, or who you like and what you hope for...follow the money. Kenseth is out because the sponsor on the 20 car did not want him back, they wanted Erik Jones. That's it. If Kenseth can't get a sponsor, or the sponsor doesn't like him, then he will not have a ride...

Nature's Basket dropped Danica, not the other way around...

[dunnere]

SHR does not renew Kurt Busch's contract, so he becomes a free agent...hello, Furniture Row.

Look for the announcement that Matt Kenseth gets the 41 ride, real soon...

Still no word on Danica...she better get a big sponsor deal, though...just saying...