[nachi_man@yahoo.com]

I'm just now getting into the hobby, and haven't had time to watch trends. I'm curious if it can be better to wait until year two to pick up a player's rookie cards? It seems like when a player is a rookie, there is a ton of buzz around that player, and that rookie class. In year two, interest might move to the new rookie class.

For instance, I'm a big Vikings fan so have been collecting Teddy Bridgewater. His cards are high right now, partly because he's a rookie, and partly because he has shown a lot of promise. Will these prices come down somewhat next year as people chase Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and Amari Cooper cards? Obviously if Bridewater lights it up his cards will continue to rise, but say he has about the year that is expected?

[butterworth1326]

No prices won't comedown. prices have no bearing on common trends or common sense for that matter. Some sellers ask market, some ask book, most ask absurd. The more rarer a card, the harder to gets to find later. Regardless of promise or popularity. If you are a super collector, Load up while you can. There's cards I've never seen in 5 years for my PC...

[maizenblue73175]

I DID THAT WITH JOE FLACCO'S AUTO RC AND 2ND YR HIS CARDS WERE OUT OF MY PRICE RANGE. GOOD LUCK.

[jephthah1]

As with all things, it depends. I refused to pay the prices for MJD when he was new, but now I am picking up his former high end stuff for pennies on the dollar. Is that a long wait? Sure. But who cares as there has been plenty of other stuff for me to spend my money on in the interim. Working the hobby this way has freed me up to get more bang for my buck.

Personally I will almost never drop big money on an active player (especially a rookie) as it is just too much of a gamble. I guess people have more money than they need. Back in the day I lost my shirt on Chad Pennington and David Boston RC's. I have never gone rookie crazy again.

For every Tom Brady that comes along, 100 other players will tank. It is simply unwise to throw your money away on an unproven player...even if you are doing it for fun. Just one man's opinion.

[savagenate]

There doesn't seem to be much of a trend. Eddie Lacy for instance-his prices have come down just a tad in year 2. Pretty steady though. Montee Ball, huge $s last year, his cards have dropped some in yr 2. J. J. Watt- pretty steady...until this year lol. Not much of a pattern. All depends on what and who you want to collect.

[djohn]

It depends on why you're buying the cards. If it's for a long term collection than just be patient. For every Tom Brady and Peyton Manning there are hundreds of flops whose cards go from $100 to $1 in a few years. Who remembers when Peyton's rookie was selling for less than rookie cards of Ryan Leaf (who was just as highly touted). Tom Brady's rookie was in 2000 the same year as Jamal Lewis and Shaun Alexander, both of which had great careers but after retiring their price for most of their cards has dropped significantly. Another rookie in 2000 was Chad Pennington, and while he had a career for several years in the NFL his card values are nowhere near what they once were.
What really amazes me with cards is that once a player retires their resale values on their cards drop off significantly. Think about what the following players rookies used to sell for while they were playing and then go look at what they are selling for now, Donovan McNabb, Drew Bledsoe, Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Kurt Warner, and Edgerrin James. It's the out of site out of mind syndrome, where people are constantly chasing the next great thing instead of those that already made history. The idea of paying thousands for a rookie card of a player who has played just a few NFL games, seems so ludacris to me. It is becoming a game of hot potato where the card grows in value as it gets passed around until the player isn't hot anymore and someone gets stuck with the card for a price they will never come close to getting again.