[jasonmj]

To keep their card values. Lets say a 15 year span...what is the stat line to justify $100 BGS 9.5 Bowman Chrome Rookie card?

Ken Griffey's card is still $150 and he had a HOF career 21 season.

BA .284 on base .370
Hits 2781
RBI's 1836
HR 630
R 1662

So really would the following be good enough to keep that kind of price tag on these rookies?

BA .275 on base .325
Hits 2200
RBI's 1400
HR 510
R 1200

That is a great career I just posted, but looking at Griffey and Pujols where could these cards really go from their current pricing?

And if it isn't us who is collecting these cards who is keeping the cards priced up there?

[bazooka joe]

Well, I dont think its just the stats. I would imagine that it is much harder to find a Griffey Jr. rookie in general, much less in 9.5 condition. That alone would drive up the prices. Also the fact that The Kid was an iconic player on a whole new level, something that im not sure Harper, Trout, or anyone will ever match.

[rpspenner]

Just like the All-Star game, it's not just the stats. Hype, demand and potential play much larger parts in it. Harper can hit .250 for the rest of his career, but if he remains an entertaining and high-demand player, his prices will stay up.

BTW, the projected stat line you listed for Harper is pretty darn close to Paul Konerko's, which is a great example of stats skewing the value. A great body of work, for sure, but proof that stats aren't the deciding factor. How many BGS 9.5 Konerko rookie cards can you get for the price of a BGS 9.5 Harper...or Griffey?

I should add, I don't see Trout or Harper going much higher than they are right now. Somebody else pointed out in another thread that awards and HOF votes don't really raise the prices a whole heck of a lot. I think we're looking at their peak; if not, darn close to it.

[jacobystealshome]

Just like the All-Star game, it's not just the stats. Hype, demand and potential play much larger parts in it. Harper can hit .250 for the rest of his career, but if he remains an entertaining and high-demand player, his prices will stay up.

BTW, the projected stat line you listed for Harper is pretty darn close to Paul Konerko's, which is a great example of stats sweing the value. A great body of work, for sure, but proof that stats aren't the deciding factor. How many BGS 9.5 Konerko rookie cards can you get for the price of a BGS 9.5 Harper...or Griffey?

I should add, I don't see Trout or Harper going much higher than they are right now. Somebody else pointed out in another thread that awards and HOF votes don't really raise the prices a whole heck of a lot. I think we're looking at their peak; if not, darn close to it.

beat me to it. this was just about my response. though probably smarter, and less smart-***ed

[rpspenner]

beat me to it. this was just about my response. though probably smarter, and less smart-***ed

LOL, I try to keep the peace

[jasonmj]

Well to each their own, but these cards have to be pretty maxed out in value. I know that I would go for a Griffey or Pujols well before I ever take a step toward a rookie at the same price.

Thanks for the responses....I would love to hear more views on the topic

[hellsbells]

That is exactly why I didn't hesitate to sell the Archives Harper AU Redemption I pulled. Didn't even own it for 24 hours. Got $300 + cash value for it.

1. With Topps, who knows if I'd even get it...
2. If he flames out like Sean Burroughs then it might be worth $8 in 10-15 years

3. If he puts together a good career like Konerko, then maybe its worth 50

4. If he puts together a career like Jeter, maybe it's worth what I got, but I couldn't see it being more.

Also, if he does turn out good, there will be so many AU's of him released over the next 10-15 years, it will lower the demand.

When

I think that these hyped up prospects are good for flipping a card, but just don't see the values holding up.

Another thing about the Griffey RC - those were produced in massive quantities and a lot of the Harper RC's now are supposedly SP - that would have something to do with the comparison.

Ken

[jasonmj]

The UD Griffey was a short print if I remember correctly. There are some 1700 BGS 9.5's out there of that Griffey card??? Hard to tell the Population report squeezed the numbers together so it is either 1688 or 16,887

Anyway there are already over 500 BGS 9.5 Harper 2010 Chrome USA cards out there.