Beckett Message Boards

Full Version: Buying cases on sale that are a few years old
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
I'm a big fan of the 2014-2015 rookie class, and was looking at some cases that are heavily discounted from their listed price. Are these cases usually a good buy? I.e. are they on sale because there is still unsold product/maybe rookie values are not what was expected (which I would not mind), or are they discounted because the best cards from the set have already been pulled?
My thought is that some of the older cases have redemptions that have expired, even though there are times that Topps or Panini will still honor them. I am not sure about Upper Deck.

Or, they have been sitting on a shelf getting dusty so the sale price is to clear them out.

There is no way of knowing whether the "best cards" have been pulled, so that would not be the reason for the discounted price.
I think a lot of it has to do with hype. New rookies = new product = more hype = higher prices. By the time products get to be a few years old, those rookie classes have already lost some of their "wow" factor. (Exceptions being '03-04 class because of LeBron/Wade, '07-08 class because of Durant).
Hempick got it spot on, it's all about hype and new stuff is always more hyped up than stuff a few years old (exceptions being hot rookie classes). I remember about 5 years ago buying up boxes of 09-10 product super cheap, and then Curry exploded and the box priced shot way up. I wish I had bought more boxes of 09-10 Topps, but it was hard to find and still is, though I bought a bunch of 09-10 Upper Deck and did well with that. Similarly about 2-3 years ago I was buying up 13-14 product and then Giannis stuff got hot and it exploded in value, though it's come down some since though Oladipo also helped keep it warm late last year.
All that being said, the value on boxes and cases of older product tends to drop until a player with rookie cards in that product gets really hot and then the prices can go up dramatically and very quickly too. So if you're considering buying some, basketball has lots of good years to choose from. There are still some 12-13 products that I believe to be way undervalued considering the dual rookie class. 14-15 (Wiggins, Embiid, etc) and 15-16 (Towns, Porzingis, Booker, etc) both have some good potential in terms of their rookie class, so it's not a bad idea to get some boxes/cases now if you can afford to do it. Just try to stick to better products, as stuff like Hoops, Donruss, and base Panini don't jump as much as stuff like Prizm, Spectra, NT, etc.
(10-12-2018, 01:27 PM)djohn Wrote: [ -> ]Hempick got it spot on, it's all about hype and new stuff is always more hyped up than stuff a few years old (exceptions being hot rookie classes). I remember about 5 years ago buying up boxes of 09-10 product super cheap, and then Curry exploded and the box priced shot way up. I wish I had bought more boxes of 09-10 Topps, but it was hard to find and still is, though I bought a bunch of 09-10 Upper Deck and did well with that. Similarly about 2-3 years ago I was buying up 13-14 product and then Giannis stuff got hot and it exploded in value, though it's come down some since though Oladipo also helped keep it warm late last year.
All that being said, the value on boxes and cases of older product tends to drop until a player with rookie cards in that product gets really hot and then the prices can go up dramatically and very quickly too. So if you're considering buying some, basketball has lots of good years to choose from. There are still some 12-13 products that I believe to be way undervalued considering the dual rookie class. 14-15 (Wiggins, Embiid, etc) and 15-16 (Towns, Porzingis, Booker, etc) both have some good potential in terms of their rookie class, so it's not a bad idea to get some boxes/cases now if you can afford to do it. Just try to stick to better products, as stuff like Hoops, Donruss, and base Panini don't jump as much as stuff like Prizm, Spectra, NT, etc.
James Harden, too, for the 2009-10 cases/boxes. I remember when that stuff first came out, Griffin and Rubio were the "it" guys. Neither lived up to the hype, though Griffin did a bit more than Rubio, certainly. Curry had ankle issues and Harden was coming off the bench for the Thunder. All that changed, as we now know.

You can look even further back to 1996-97 products and see that those command much higher prices than the '94-95, '95-96, and '97-98 stuff because of Kobe, Iverson, and Nash (mainly Kobe, though).

Echoing djohn's comment, I think the best bet is buying product that is at least a year old, but less than four or five years old. Usually if a player hasn't "made it" in four years or so, they aren't ever going to make it. (Though that varies depending on the sport and the position, I think. It can take baseball players longer to develop/break out than football players, for example.)