I got to thinking this morning. With every new Upper Deck release, the sell value of MJ and Lebron autos decreases. With every Panini release the sell value of Kobe, Kyrie, Anthony Davis, and Blake Griffin autos also decreases. The MJ 1/1 buybacks will always sell for over $1000 because they are 1/1 and MJ so exclude those and every other true 1/1 autos for that matter.
Card values typically decreases in the way that a car value decreases. It is at its peak when it is still the box. It simply decreases from there forward.
My question is what cards from any 2012-13 releases will consistently sell for $1000+ in 3 years.
My initial thought is gold prizms of top rookies but the hype around those rookies will fade, especially when Wiggin comes into the league(he is projected to be the new next best thing). Autos of 2012-13 will only decrease because Panini/UD etc etc will churn out more and more and more and more in every product from this year forward.
IMO the 2009-10 draft class was simply loaded with franchise players and is the best draft top to bottom since 2003-04. The only cards from the 2009-10 draft class selling at the $1000 mark are the RPA's and even then its basically Blake Griffins, if even that since his star has dimmed a bit.
I am not asking this as investment advice or anything(my career is my investment, this is solely a hobby for me).
I don't really foresee anything keeping value over $1,000. Maybe prizms gold can maintain some value. If Kyrie becomes the best point guard and wins some championships, then maybe his stuff /10 or lower maintains value.
Everything in this hobby drops in value over time. Some particular sets JUMP in value years later because older collectors come back to the hobby. It's so hard to tell because basketball collectors are some of the most unpredictable collectors in the hobby.
You are right that as the market gets saturated with more and more autos of a particular player the more common autos drop in sale price. However the rare autos tend to hold their value. Also rookie year autographs will hold more value than non-rookie autos. The $1k mark is a new thing for modern cards, as up until a few years ago it was extremely rare for any single modern card to hit $1k. The big jump came with 03-04 Exquisite, and now with several $500+ packs it keeps the value up on cards. It is tough to predict the future, but if I had to place a bet I would put it on high-end rookie year autographs of top players.
Buying cards is like buying a depreciating asset if you really put it in financial terms. I have a great respect for guys that buy to resell and actually make money doing it. I have zero interest in doing that but when people that do that is it an 80/20 business or is it a few bucks here and a few bucks there?
Depending on how some guys turn out I think graded 9.5 or 10 rookie autos or prizm gold rookie or refractor stuff could sell high but i don't know about $1000. Kyrie/Davis passing torch auto maybe? I don't know
It's a shame collecting modern cards is considered collecting a depreciating asset. Cards like Jordan, Wilt, Erving, Magic/Bird etc rookies in high grade never seem to loose value. On the baseball end of things, almost all nice HOF RCs seem to steadily appreciate. Look at recent sales of some Mantle cards, the recent Legendary Auction Ruth RC...these blue chip cards are as safe a bet as can be.
I have a buddy that sold off his BGS 9/5 Jordan Fleer and 8.5 Star RCs and made a nice piece of change from his buy in.
These days, players are so over produced that what's hot one day becomes an afterthought the next. Look at the huye Prizm got, Selct drops and everyone is on that, Preferred comes and its Silo this and silo that. What happens when the NT boxes drop?
Look at Retro, last year these were hotter than hell. This year my LCS has 4 cases worth not moving. Credentials and PMGs just sitting on ebay...
(06-30-2013, 08:42 PM)bballfrk44 Wrote: [ -> ]Depending on how some guys turn out I think graded 9.5 or 10 rookie autos or prizm gold rookie or refractor stuff could sell high but i don't know about $1000. Kyrie/Davis passing torch auto maybe? I don't know
High is a term of relativity. I used the arbitrary $1000 mark as a threshold. I agree with you here about the gold prizms, though panini will surely do a great job of killing the panini product in the way topps killed refractors by Adding four or five different colors to chase. As for the kyrie/Davis passing the torch....just to put it in perspective, the kobe/Durant has a sell value of $500 or so right now and remove lbj from the equation and kobe and Durant are a hotter commodity than kyrie and uni. This is right now so I agree it depends how they turn out but....those are pretty lofty expectations for a kid that has proven fragile and a guy, who I like, but was the last man in the Olympic team(although as I type the Olympic team part I am almost sure it is more impressive to be the 12th man than to have not made the team so I am not sure I like my statement or not but you get what I am saying)...
(06-30-2013, 09:46 PM)user_3n5kp Wrote: [ -> ]It's a shame collecting modern cards is considered collecting a depreciating asset. Cards like Jordan, Wilt, Erving, Magic/Bird etc rookies in high grade never seem to loose value. On the baseball end of things, almost all nice HOF RCs seem to steadily appreciate. Look at recent sales of some Mantle cards, the recent Legendary Auction Ruth RC...these blue chip cards are as safe a bet as can be.
I have a buddy that sold off his BGS 9/5 Jordan Fleer and 8.5 Star RCs and made a nice piece of change from his buy in.
These days, players are so over produced that what's hot one day becomes an afterthought the next. Look at the huye Prizm got, Selct drops and everyone is on that, Preferred comes and its Silo this and silo that. What happens when the NT boxes drop?
Look at Retro, last year these were hotter than hell. This year my LCS has 4 cases worth not moving. Credentials and PMGs just sitting on ebay...
Although I agree with you for the most part, card collecting has gone through stages. Before the Internet boom, LCS could sell cards for full bv. You used to have a lot of other companies producing price guides as well. Now that people have easier access to cards, people are able to sell their stuff for less than the next person.
Jordan's RC has went up and down over the years (even high grades). The original pmg's and credentials sell for more now than they have ever done. Same thing applies to Jordan's older stuff, it jumped for crazy prices last year and has cooled off a little this year. Some of his stuff that traditionally sold for $200-400 now sell for over $2000. IMO it's all determined by what collectors choose to chase over time.
Most of my cards are about a grand but you guys can have them for like $100 each, LOL
its just market over saturation...look at Panini this season..how many crazy products did they churn out trying to cash in on the double RC class?? and they are still not done as there are at least 2 more and the season has been done for what like 3 weeks now?
Kyrie autos could have held well except know there are like 20 different products to chose from..they have already killed the Prizms by adding blue, red, green, orange, black, rainbow...