Beckett Message Boards

Is there a scientific/mathematical formula for determining bv?

A lot of my basketball cards have nice BV, but I know people would only pay 40-70% of the high column.

If they did have a formula I would think it would be something like this:

It's completely wrong I know

(POB) = price of box the card game from (MSRP)
(NOH) = number of hits in a box
(MVP) = an MVP caliber player (assign value of 2)
(ALL-STAR) = An All-Star caliber player (assign value of 10)
(RC1) = Rookie Year of an MVP caliber (assign value of 1)
(RC2) = Rookie Year of a future potential all-star (assign value of 2)
(GU) = Assign Value of 0.5
(Patch, P) = Assign Value of 2
(Sticker auto, SA) = Assign Value of (2)
(On card Auto, OCA) = Assign Value of 2.75
Value Formula for hits:




(100/Print Run) x (POB/NOH) x (100/RC2) x (P x OCA)
______________________________________________
(20)

Example: 2010-11 Prestige John Wall Auto Patch RC /199


(100/199) x ($85/4) x (100/2) (2 x 2.75)
___________________________________
(20)

0.502 x $21.25 x 50 x 5.5 = $2,933.56/20

$2,933.56/20 = 146.68 (round up to $147)

And I would assign a value of $147 on 2010-11 Prestige John Wall Auto Patch RC /199

Is there a scientific/mathematical formula for determining bv?

I stopped trying to figure out what you were saying at POB, lol. Value is set by the market. Beckett dosen't just rely on ebay sales. There are probably hundreds of auction, team, sale, etc sites to navigate. You might see some items in the Beckett data base that are diff. versions (like refractors) of the same card, but have the same BV. Sometimes the card that's s/n lower than another version is cheaper. It depends on what someone has/is willing to pay for it.

You shouldn't rely just on BV, it's mainly a guide. The bottom line is a card will only sale for what someone will pay for it. I sold a card for almost 4x what the BV was. I've also sold a card for 1/10 of BV as well. Hope this helps.

I can generally get cards at about 50% of BV. You were saying BV is a guide, but if it's easy to get most items for half of BV how is this guide accurate? It's it just accurate when it comes to the most popular players like jordans, lebrons, roses, kobes, blake griffins etc.

I buy a beckett mag once a year. Also, I noticed when people refer to beckett values they always refer to the high column. I always focus on the low column and try to pay a good amount under that.

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I traded my michael jordan black starquest for a card that would have costed me $40 on ebay.

I don't think the jordan black starquest typically sells well because it's not a GU or an Auto.

His older cards sell well because it was when he was still playing.

My question is why does beckett have a $30 range in value on this card. Not really the best guide to help you to know what you can get for it. I think I lucked in my trade, but who knows. One nut job might be willing to pay $100+ for it if they are very rich.

Bekcett is the most complete priceguide available. It is also very slow to react to fluctuation in player and set values. If you are constanly trading based on this one price reference that Beckett gives then you may be trading at a loss in actual monetary value.

You have to know the market your trading in or you have to ignore it and just go for what you prefer. I myself am willing to take a loss according to pricing from beckett and ebay sales, especially if it gets me the card I want more than I am giving up. I also have well over BV in a lot of my older auto cards.

Your formula is a nice try at gauging monetary value of a card, even it would not be accurate more than maybe 60% of the time. Try to reformulate your equations to include a range in your solution, the accuracy would definately increase.

Boy this brings back memories. When I first used Beckett Magazine, I didn't question it. But when I started using the forums oh 3-4 years ago, I questioned it and tried to come up with my own formula. What you have to remember is the Beckett is just a guide and like got watcha want said, it's not going to fluctuate quickly. For instance, Derrick Rose won MVP this year. On eBay, his sales went up some, but Beckett didn't really change the value of his cards. Should he sustain his caliber of play and his sales maintain their value, then it may go up. But if you have 100 of a card, and the same exact card (say 5/100) sells three times for $100 (because people think it will grade well but never get around to grading it), and that is the only one of the cards that has shown to sell anywhere (maybe it'f MJ and a lot of people PC him), you can't necessarily say that card is worth $100. However, that doesn't give you a low or a high. But both of the previous people were right. The sources of prices come from many different websites, auction houses, dealers, LCSs, etc. I can get a GU card in my LCS for $5 but it would cost me $7 online because of shipping. That kind of gives you a low and high. And when taking into the caliber of player, you also have to take in the market. Kevin Love is a perfect example. His value went up very little after his double double streak, but it could have gone up more if he was playing for the Knicks, Heat, Bulls, etc. But he was playing for the Wolves, which as a team is not collected very well because it's in a small market. That's why you see a lot of people that have the same value for the same card of the same set. These X players are all about the same caliber, so they are valued at $X.XX. These X players are all about the same caliber, but better than the previous, so they are valued at $X.XX. Look at it like a pyramid, because the higher valued guys aren't as many as the lower valued guys. While I consider Dwight Howard an awesome player, great personality, and awesome intensity and flash for the game, he's not valued as much as LeBron James or Kobe Bryant. So he's a level lower than those two, and you can put a few more people in that category. Then there's a level below that, etc. It'd be nearly impossible to 1) get all sales values for cards (especially since a lot of base sell in lots) and 2) determine the exact "value" of each individual card of each player. I wish they could, but I'll put that in the impossible category.

i know a perfect formula doesn't exist, but i wish there was math/science behind the values...

BV seems like a religion. A lot of people follow it blindly without asking the right questions.

Most people are willing to pay 50% BV of high column on a card they really want.

75-100+% if it's a Michael Jordan, Blake Griffin, Kobe, Rose, Lebron etc.

(08-01-2011, 04:27 PM)evanturner12 Wrote: [ -> ]i know a perfect formula doesn't exist, but i wish there was math/science behind the values...

BV seems like a religion. A lot of people follow it blindly without asking the right questions.

Most people are willing to pay 50% BV of high column on a card they really want.

75-100+% if it's a Michael Jordan, Blake Griffin, Kobe, Rose, Lebron etc.

I would rather see production value.

You also have to count in regional premiums. Beckett used to mention that but also stated that their prices reflect the overall average of high and low sale values - not counting regional premiums. Take, for example, Xstreaminsanity's Piston's collection. If he were to be buying his cards from card stores in Detroit or Michigan state, he would be paying anywhere from 20-100% on top of the Beckett Hi column simply because he is buying Detroit cards in the detroit region. If he were to buy them in Atlanta, he would be likely paying BV or less whereas cards of Atlanta players would be certain percentage over BV.

"Book value is what I say it is" - Dr. James Beckett

(Not an actual quote)

(08-01-2011, 07:11 PM)taffster74 Wrote: [ -> ]You also have to count in regional premiums. Beckett used to mention that but also stated that their prices reflect the overall average of high and low sale values - not counting regional premiums. Take, for example, Xstreaminsanity's Piston's collection. If he were to be buying his cards from card stores in Detroit or Michigan state, he would be paying anywhere from 20-100% on top of the Beckett Hi column simply because he is buying Detroit cards in the detroit region. If he were to buy them in Atlanta, he would be likely paying BV or less whereas cards of Atlanta players would be certain percentage over BV.

Unless it's some awesome GU/AU RC /50 or less, I hope to never be paying BV HI or more for any Pistons. One, they aren't that high in demand (even in Detroit it seems) and two, they're always a team of stars or less, no superstars (with an exception here and there). There is a guy in Detroit that I sold 2000 Pistons doubles I had (not GU and AU, but some nice RC and Inserts) for $165. Now, some would say that's a steal on his part and others would say that's not bad for a Pistons lot. Well, there were some cards in there worth about $8 (RC and Inserts) and a lot (probably 1000 of them) worth $0.25 or less, so I think it worked out pretty evenly. What he does with them is put three in a team bag and sell them in vending machines for $0.50 a bag. Some of the RC and $5.00 cards he puts in there for $1.00 each. Had I not gone to the mall on my vacation, I'd still have all of those cards. And because the only Pistons collectors I've found collect only a few Pistons, those Orlando Woolridge and Mark Macon and Jerome Williams cards would just be sitting here doing nothing. I've got about 800 more for the guy, just have to see if he's wanting to pay for shipping on top of it.