Colts, Vikings Super Bowl in the Cards

If a highly unscientific, sinfully entertaining football card comparison can serve as a hobby-heavy harbinger, the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings are headed for a Super Bowl XLIV showdown.

It’s the game most of America wants to see (Peyton Manning vs. Brett Favre) after Sunday’s conference championship games; and it’s the decided outcome of an off-the-beaten-path, off-the-field projection produced by the heavily queried, incomparably massive Beckett database.

We started by ranking the NFL’s four remaining teams (the Colts and New York Jets in the AFC, the Vikings and New Orleans Saints in the NFC) in five collecting categories: Total number of cards all time, total number of 2009 cards, average Rookie Card value, average autograph card value and average memorabilia card value.

We then awarded points to each team in each category depending on how they fared (four points for first, three for second, two for third and one for fourth), tallied the overall scores for each team and – voila! – had our results . . .

Total Number of Cards – All Time

1. (4) Colts                32,571
2. (3) Vikings            31,589
3. (2) Jets                   28,515
4. (1) Saints               24,721

While this category does little to pinpoint the specific appeal of this particular season, it does establish a baseline for historical significance in the football card era. Just imagine how the Vikings would’ve fared had the majority of Brett Favre’s more than 12,000 cards counted toward Minnesota’s total, instead of just those Vikings cards from 2009. Somewhat surprisingly, Peyton Manning accounts for more than 25 percent of all Indianapolis Colts cards ever produced.

Total Number of Cards – 2009

1. (4) Colts                1,975
2. (3) Jets                   1,562
3. (2) Vikings            1,449
4. (1) Saints               1,231

This category provides a really accurate snapshot of each team’s collectibility during the specific Super Bowl season. The inclusion of hot skill-position rookies Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene make this the Jets’ strongest category. The Colts are buoyed primarily by more Manning and rookie RB Donald Brown. The Vikings countered with Percy Harvin and a handful of Favre base cards. The Saints are hampered by a lack of collectible first-year options.

Average Rookie Card Value

1. (4) Vikings            $11.56
2. (3) Colts                $10.26
3. (2) Jets                   $9.15
4. (1) Saints               $8.39

The upward mobility and season-long Hot List domination of Rookie Cards from Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin give the Vikings a decided edge in average RC value, $1.30 per card more than runner-up Indianapolis. It’s hard to believe that Joe Namath’s $1,800 landmark RC doesn’t fatten the Jets’ average more than it does. The staggering softening of all key Reggie Bush’s RCs two years ago (his 2006 Exquisite Collection, for example, plummeted from a high of $4,500 to $800) likely cost the Saints at least two spots here, perhaps three. After his performance against the Cardinals last week, he should be on his way back up. It also doesn’t help that Drew Brees’ currently scorching RCs picture him with the Chargers.

Average Autographed Card Value

1. (4) Colts                $93.86
2. (3) Vikings            $75.05
3. (2) Saints               $56.66
4. (1) Jets                   $54.80

Who dat finally not finishing last in a category? Indeed, the Saints outperform the Jets in average autographed card value, earning two points and avoiding a cellar sweep. Even more enlightening than that, though, is the disparity in average value between the Saints and Vikings and the Vikings and Colts. Indy’s ink empire is bolstered by guys with names like Manning and Unitas boasting low-numbered gems; Minnesota’s meal ticket here is Adrian Peterson.

Average Memorabilia Card Value

1. (4) Colts                $27.89
2. (3) Vikings            $27.18
3. (2) Jets                   $22.37
4. (1) Saints               $20.90

In a microcosm of the overall outcome, the Manning-led Colts win the memorabilia card category by a thread over the Vikings and by a few spools over the Jets and Saints. It’s difficult to create much of an advantage in the memorabilia card arena these days no matter who you are; so the fact that the average memorabilia card for both Indy and Minnesota is $5 more expensive than the Jets or Saints is a testament to a decided advantage in the arena of star power.

Final Score

1. Colts         19
2. Vikings     15
3. Jets            10
4. Saints        6

In a predictably top-heavy performance, the Colts finished first in four of the five categories while the Vikings finished second in three and first in another. The result was a landslide victory for Indianapolis and Minnesota that that left

Ultimately, this matchup came down to the favorable showings of aforementioned slinging legends Manning and Favre, much like Sunday’s games promise to. While a Saints’ appearance in the Super Bowl would certainly be refreshing, here’s hoping we get Manning vs. Favre one more time – only for real this time.

– Tracy Hackler