[mrosenhagen]

P_Manning 18 Wrote:

The BGS & PSA9 Collector, ThoseBackPages Wrote:what i dont understand about these types of threads is why most of the time, the OP doesnt answer their own post lol

He kinda does.... its in his signature.

Collecting:
All D.J. Shockley autos and jerseys

:lol: :lol:
Hey he and Cedric Benson can sign with the Lions we need the upgrade:badgrin:

[a_minors]

mrosenhagen Wrote:

P_Manning 18 Wrote:

The BGS & PSA9 Collector, ThoseBackPages Wrote:what i dont understand about these types of threads is why most of the time, the OP doesnt answer their own post lol

He kinda does.... its in his signature.

Collecting:
All D.J. Shockley autos and jerseys

:lol: :lol:
Hey he and Cedric Benson can sign with the Lions we need the upgrade:badgrin:

Haha. The Lions need more help than a 7th round draft pick and a jailbird can offer. :badgrin:

[bucknellbison]

I didn't have ovely much of him because I was like 8 years old, but I had some Mark Prior stuff in 2001 when he was hot including 3 autos. Now that was a total flop with all the injuries he had , and thats why I don't spend a lot on prospects and go for the smaller prospects .

[mrosenhagen]

sportscardroyalty Wrote:Anyone who calls 21 year old Cameron Maybin a flop and not just a, as of right now, cheap prospect to stock up on, must not know much about collecting.

Exactly!!! Funny these same people probably sold all their Ryan Howard cards since he did not debut until he was 25 so he was an absolute flop in their judging of young players.:roll:

[Swatzell]

Mine would have to be Ryan Leaf. Yes Ryan bleeping Leaf. I was scooping them up in 1998 as fast as I could give away all my cards includingthat Peyton guy. I just KNEW he was the next big thing and I would have the last laugh. Little did I know I would be laughing until I cried. In baseball mine is Anthony Reyes. I have a TON of his 2005 stuff, TChrome Superfractor, like 10 red xfractor, 25 ultimate rc, 10 ultimate /50. Its sad.

[nerfxerks]

TUIASOSOPO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bmsexton12]

I think there needs to be a distinction drawn here, because I don't think everyone is talking about the same thing. There's more to it than just short and long term.

There are two main ways a prospect investment can go wrong. The first and most obvious way is that the prospect can perform poorly (relative to expectations) or get injured and washout. Guys in this category include Todd Van Poppel, Kevin Maas, Alex Escobar, Ryan Anderson, and a host of others.

The second way an investment can go wrong has little to do with performance. Let's call it a "technical mistake." These occur when you invest in a guy who may or may not be great, but you invest at the wrong time. For instance, you buy Chrome autographs of mega-hyped prospects two days after the product is released, or you buy autographs of similarly mega-hyped prospects two weeks before Opening Day. Or, you might not have your comparative multiples down, and you might mis-estimate how much more valuable an orange refractor is than a gold refractor (which varies according to prospect status).

Calling Alex Gordon a flop according to the first criteria is ludicrous; calling him a flop according to the second criteria is correct. And most incoming investors will make more mistakes of the second variety than the first.

[a_minors]

nerfxerks Wrote:TUIASOSOPO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Haha, I wrote this thread with him in mind. His cards used to be huge, but he flopped BIGTIME!
I was just waiting for someone to admit that they blew their cash on that guy.

Anthony

[Casey2884]

bmsexton12 Wrote:I think there needs to be a distinction drawn here, because I don't think everyone is talking about the same thing. There's more to it than just short and long term.

There are two main ways a prospect investment can go wrong. The first and most obvious way is that the prospect can perform poorly (relative to expectations) or get injured and washout. Guys in this category include Todd Van Poppel, Kevin Maas, Alex Escobar, Ryan Anderson, and a host of others.

The second way an investment can go wrong has little to do with performance. Let's call it a "technical mistake." These occur when you invest in a guy who may or may not be great, but you invest at the wrong time. For instance, you buy Chrome autographs of mega-hyped prospects two days after the product is released, or you buy autographs of similarly mega-hyped prospects two weeks before Opening Day. Or, you might not have your comparative multiples down, and you might mis-estimate how much more valuable an orange refractor is than a gold refractor (which varies according to prospect status).

Calling Alex Gordon a flop according to the first criteria is ludicrous; calling him a flop according to the second criteria is correct. And most incoming investors will make more mistakes of the second variety than the first.

Excellent post - and it highlights the disparity that exists between real-life on-field performance and sportscard market values ... which are often completely out-of-sync.

[The BGS & PSA9 Collector, ThoseBackPages]

nerfxerks Wrote:TUIASOSOPO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i hear that