[Greybill82]

Just received a sealed Upper Deck 2003 - 2004 Victory box yesterday. Should I open it or save it? Could contain Lebron and Wade rookies. Is it worth more sealed or should I pull the rookies and Jordans ???

[ahvjr]

I say open it. There are no auto's I believe but parallels could be worth the chase if u got the right name or two.

[vgqv]

I don't think there were autos either but the parallels are your chase. Personally, I'd save it but I'm not like most modern collectors.

[Greybill82]

Thanks. I am still undecided. Gonna wait for more collector input. I know there are some AKA cards and even Jordan parallels. Just wondering if the gain in box value would be worth the wait for after Lebron retires/ enters the HOF.

[djohn]

If your intent is to resell what you hit, they you're basically going to have to decide whether you want to pay for the risk/gamble or let someone else pay for it. If you open the box and don't hit anything extraordinary then you would've been better off keeping it sealed. However if you do pull something nice, then the singles could be worth more than the sealed box. However if your intent is to keep any nice cards, then you have to consider the cost of just buying the nice cards versus the odds of hitting one along with the value of reselling the box sealed.
I created a simple equation to help me determine what to do. I call it the box decision ratio, and it's simply (box odds)*(Hit Value)/(box cost) = box decision ratio. Anything near or above 100%, means I open the box immediately. It's around 50-75% that I start to question whether to open the box or not. However everyone is different in terms of what rate they consider to be worth taking a shot.
For example, if the card you would want to hit can be bought for $200, the odds of hitting it are 1:10 boxes, and the resale value on the box is $50, then
(box odds)*(Hit Value)/(box cost) = (1/10)*$200/$50 = 0.40, or 40%.
You have to be careful that you're using the correct odds for each hit. In other words if the odds of hitting a particular insert set are 1:40 packs and there are 12 cards in that set, then the odds for a specific player are 1:480 packs. So if there are 24 packs per box, that means the odds are 1:20 boxes to land a specific player from that set.
Also, the equation can be adjusted if there are multiple cards with high value, simply by repeating the equation for each card and adding the results. Also, when it comes to card values I use resell values for this equation and not book values, otherwise it can be very misleading (as the equation uses a resale value for the box and not a book value, and book values for individual cards may be way off from what actual resale value is on cards).

[Greybill82]

Thank you this is excellent info. Will use in the future when deciding on opening and pricing purchases.

By the way I pulled no parallels.

- Julius Erving AKA
- Jordan AKA
- Jordan Farewell to a Legend
- Lebron RC ( high graded value but doesn't sell high yet)
- Wade RC
- Carmello RC
- Scrub rookies

Yes, my intention was to sell. Will send the Jordans for grading. The high foil cards grade low after aging due to flaking. Want to get them encapsulated. May sell for 40 - 50 combined depending on grade.

[jonathani]

12+% of the cards are RCs. Not tough to find. The borders are colored, however, and if that box got bumped around in the last 13 years you might have some pretty obvious corner damage. I'd leave it closed and sell it on, if possible.