[DrMitchJ]

I really have nothing factual here, except my observation over the past 5 years buying cards (90% retail .. Mostly Target & Walmart) after years of staying far away from the hobby.
This is in part my 'First Wave Theorum' as it applies to retail purchases only.
I have no inside knowledge about how cards are sold and distributed to retail shops, but I'm going to go and make certain assumptions based on my experience.
1) card companies depend on preorders from distributors to determine the amount of cards to print.
2) a certain percentage over that number is printed and held in reserve for reorders, replacements, or damages.
3) when packaging the cards for hobby or retail, The Card company knows exactly which packs have hits, which don't and know approximate odds of pulling a hit.
4) initial orders are sent out. These have slightly better than announced odds since they control the hit rate. It's good for sales and repurchasing if there are great hits/box in the first wave.
5) if successful, the distributor reorders. These reserve boxes are a little less forgiving and odds a little tougher than the First Wave. They probably fill reorders at a substantially higher rate when compared to preorders. If REALLY successful, they can pop out newly printed cards, pack'em up and get them out with substantially less number of hits and significantly 'lesser' hits when packaged.

My recent examples are true for 2 different products this year, and many in the past.
Example 1: Gypsy Queen. First week, bought 5 or 6 boxes. Got about 2 hit per 3 blasters. After that first week, not 1 hit in about 4 more blasters.
Example 2: Diamond Kings. First week was getting about 3 hits for every 4 blasters. Subsequent weeks, about 1 hit in about 5 blasters.
In the past, I remember some of my best pulls, hits, redemptions happened in the first few boxes I bought when a product was released. Happened with Flagship, Heritage, Bowman Chrome, Allen & Ginter, Prizm, Donruss, etc, etc.

Feedback welcome. Personal observations desired. If you don't recall ... Please
Keep track from this point forward.

[ericg531]

I 100% believe in this too, even with things like lottery tickets. When a new ticket comes out, I find the odds slightly better than usual. I think they load the front of some products to generate word of mouth buzz among people to generate more sales.

[djohn]

I 100% believe in this too, even with things like lottery tickets. When a new ticket comes out, I find the odds slightly better than usual. I think they load the front of some products to generate word of mouth buzz among people to generate more sales.

Not sure I agree with the theory on cards, however the thing with scratch-off lottery tickets is a known fact. Scratch-off tickets have a sequential 2-4 digit code on the bottom of the ticket, which is essentially the ticket number on the roll. It has been proven that the lower ticket numbers have better odds of hitting a low value prize (i.e. $1, $2, $5, etc), however the higher value prizes ($1k+) are usually on the higher numbered tickets. The reason the lottery does this is because having more low dollar winners on the lower numbered tickets gets more interest in the particular ticket, and having the higher value prizes towards the ends of the rolls means that they sold all the previous tickets to get there, plus a lot of rolls get returned before the last tickets on the rolls are sold.
As for cards what one has to consider is how the local distributors handle their stock. A good distributor would monitor sales of each product at each store to determine if he should move product from one store to another, if sales are better of a particular product at a particular store. It also depends on how a distributor splits a case, as they might split a case between 2 or more stores, thus one store could get a bunch of great boxes while the other one gets the duds (not on purpose, just on happenstance).

[yankees_pride]

I wish I could dedicate a set amount of money to do an experiment to see how true this is

I would only buy one product (Heritage for example) and buy out my Walmart every time over the course of 3 months just to see hit rate.

[Phillies_Joe]

I'm pretty sure it has to do with the case distribution on the wholesalers part. I know (or think I do....LOL) for instance, that one case of retail boxes (24 packs per box) will yield one and only one auto. Usually in the top row, left hand side of the box, which is the top box on the right side front. Want to waste your money on a retail case for one auto? I've also found this with blasters....if you can get to them when they 1st hit the shelves and gobble them up, you are more than likely to hit something.

Also, please consider that there are retail exclusives. For Gypsy Queen this year, they were the foil mini's (which are awesome!!!! I still need 1/2 of them). Do these exclusives constitute a hit....? I only buy blasters of Flagship for the manufactured relic/coin/award cards which I collect, and Opening Day, which usually has a mascot auto if I buy them all up (pretty cheap at $10.99 or approx. $140 for 12 blasters for great looking cards)

I have a friend who swears that all of the "great hits" go to the large case sellers because of the product they move and the manufacturer knowing what hits are in what cases. Can it happen.....sure it can....but I always point to the lady the hit the Babe Ruth cut auto a couple of years ago out of a regular hobby box.

To get back on point.....it's really only luck IMO with the caveat that some cases may be seeded better than others. The retail purchaser needs to get there when the product is fresh, and buy everything up.

[DrMitchJ]

I 100% believe in this too, even with things like lottery tickets. When a new ticket comes out, I find the odds slightly better than usual. I think they load the front of some products to generate word of mouth buzz among people to generate more sales.

Agreed, and it makes sense!

---

Not sure I agree with the theory on cards, however the thing with scratch-off lottery tickets is a known fact. Scratch-off tickets have a sequential 2-4 digit code on the bottom of the ticket, which is essentially the ticket number on the roll. It has been proven that the lower ticket numbers have better odds of hitting a low value prize (i.e. $1, $2, $5, etc), however the higher value prizes ($1k+) are usually on the higher numbered tickets. The reason the lottery does this is because having more low dollar winners on the lower numbered tickets gets more interest in the particular ticket, and having the higher value prizes towards the ends of the rolls means that they sold all the previous tickets to get there, plus a lot of rolls get returned before the last tickets on the rolls are sold.
As for cards what one has to consider is how the local distributors handle their stock. A good distributor would monitor sales of each product at each store to determine if he should move product from one store to another, if sales are better of a particular product at a particular store. It also depends on how a distributor splits a case, as they might split a case between 2 or more stores, thus one store could get a bunch of great boxes while the other one gets the duds (not on purpose, just on happenstance).

There are plenty of factors to consider. My Theorum was more observational than factual. Perhaps a little conspiracy theory thrown in, too.

---

I wish I could dedicate a set amount of money to do an experiment to see how true this is
I would only buy one product (Heritage for example) and buy out my Walmart every time over the course of 3 months just to see hit rate.

If we could get independent funding, that would be a fun experiment, right?

---

I'm pretty sure it has to do with the case distribution on the wholesalers part. I know (or think I do....LOL) for instance, that one case of retail boxes (24 packs per box) will yield one and only one auto. Usually in the top row, left hand side of the box, which is the top box on the right side front. Want to waste your money on a retail case for one auto? I've also found this with blasters....if you can get to them when they 1st hit the shelves and gobble them up, you are more than likely to hit something.
Also, please consider that there are retail exclusives. For Gypsy Queen this year, they were the foil mini's (which are awesome!!!! I still need 1/2 of them). Do these exclusives constitute a hit....? I only buy blasters of Flagship for the manufactured relic/coin/award cards which I collect, and Opening Day, which usually has a mascot auto if I buy them all up (pretty cheap at $10.99 or approx. $140 for 12 blasters for great looking cards)
I have a friend who swears that all of the "great hits" go to the large case sellers because of the product they move and the manufacturer knowing what hits are in what cases. Can it happen.....sure it can....but I always point to the lady the hit the Babe Ruth cut auto a couple of years ago out of a regular hobby box.
To get back on point.....it's really only luck IMO with the caveat that some cases may be seeded better than others. The retail purchaser needs to get there when the product is fresh, and buy everything up.

I don't agree with your friend, thinking that Blowout get preferential hits over Dave & Adam, or vice versa. I know that they know which packs have hits, but I still think there's randomization of where the hits end up (i.e. the Babe Ruth 1/1) that being said, I still think they're front loading the retail hits first wave.
1) good for biz
2) gets you hooked
3) keeps you hopeful and continues your spending on subsequent reordering

I don't know the numbers, but I suspect that Target & Walmart account for a major chunk of their sales. They have those retail exclusives for a reason. They have every incentive to keep retails viable and profitable for now and the future. Linear retail space is very valuable, they need to keep competitive sales to justify that space.
Front loading the first wave makes some of that occur, IMO.
Again, observational, theoretical and totally NOT factual. I would love to get some Topps or Panini insider info pertaining to this.

[rentzington]

i subscribe to this theory.
most of my best retail hits have come from blasters/hangers bought the first week of release and some of my better hobby hits came from pre-order boxes.

with hobby you're always going to have a case hit, but i think the non case hit stuff thats still good is more prevalent early on

[rentzington]

i let myself be suckered into the last two series 2 blasters at target, they were TERRIBLE!
the biggest hit was the coupon book.

I blame you drmitch!