[michaelstepper]

I've been in a few debates on how great felix hernandez has been over his career and people keep quoting the wins/losses, who he plays for and apparently this year was a sub par year. For this thread and the wins/losses guys I've figured this math.
Taking the MLB average of 4.17 runs per game for an individual team. ( which has kept creeping lower the last 10 years. I was curious how being on a sub par offensive team such as the mariners effected my favorite pitcher King felix. So I shaved a full run off the allowed RPG and took his stats from each year and adjusted if the measly Mariners had scored him just 3 runs of support.
Alot goes into a ball game and we can't predict how things would have turned out either way but here's how I did it.
I took the losing decisions and if 3 runs would have tied the game it became a ND, then I took the overall teams and his losses in his starts and if 3 runs would have won I changed it to a win. Here's the results
Felix hernandez difference in record with 3 runs of support.

2005 record 4-4
W/3 runs of support
1 ND
1 win
adjusted win/loss: 5-3

2006 record* 12-14
1 ND
1 win
AWL:* 13-12

2007 record 14-7
1 win
AWL: 15-7

2008 record 9-11
2 ND
2 wins
AWL: 11-7

2009 record 19-5
1 win
AWL: 20-5

2010 record 13-12
2 ND
1 win
AWL: 14-9

2011 record 14-14
2 ND
2 wins
AWL: 16-10

2012 record 13-9
2 wins
AWL: 15-9

2013 record 12-10
1ND
2wins
AWL: 14-7

2014 record 15-6
4 wins
AWL: 19-6

2015 record 18-9
2 wins
AWL: 20-9

CAREER:****** 143-101
AWL career:* 162-84

Give him 4 runs the difference is even greater.

[cubswinagain]

Can't we just accept that wins aren't the best way to measure pitching and move on?

[michaelstepper]

I've tried to argue that, but the shiny 20 game winner is what's hot to most, including cy voters

[cubswinagain]

I've tried to argue that, but the shiny 20 game winner is what's hot to most, including cy voters

Ugh, yea. One of these days all of the older awards voters will retire, and we'll start getting it right more frequently. There's just so many better ways to measure a pitcher. A win is, what, something like 40% in their control?

[alfredoleal2001]

I've tried to argue that, but the shiny 20 game winner is what's hot to most, including cy voters

Yep for some reason the first thing everyone looks at is at the wins, which dont depend entirely on the pitcher like youve just said.

[Phillies_Joe]

A great pitcher either way.......I'm a big Felix fan, so your preaching to the choir in my case.

I still think won / loss record has it's place when gauging how well a starting pitcher has done.

[redsoxfan1534]

Shelby Miller is a prime example from this past year.

[cubswinagain]

Shelby Miller is a prime example from this past year.

Yep, era of 3 and went 6-17.

[michaelstepper]

Yep, era of 3 and went 6-17.

Using my same math but the mlb Avg of 4 runs per he would have gained 2 wins and 4 no decisions for an 8-11 record. Yes he qualifies quite nicely for this discussion.

[DrMitchJ]

A 'Win' is what counts when you're talking about a team effort. But a pitcher has more control over the game than almost every other player. The whole 'feel' of that game is determined by the Pitcher ... That being said, losing a 0-1 pitching duel is not indicative of a 'bad outing' nor is it deserving of getting collared with a lose. In the past, when pitchers threw complete games, I felt that W-L records were more important than today when most games are 'by committee'
The awarding of a W-L is now more of being a 'victim of circumstance' ... If you happen to be on the mound relieving a pitcher in the top of the 9th inning after a 0-0 tie game and in the bottom of that inning someone hits a game winning HR ... The reliever gets the win, while the starter, who pitched 8 scoreless innings, gets nothing other than a lower ERA. That starter deserves 8/9ths of that Win! Sabrmetrics has all of these fancy calculations that I never understand, perhaps that figures into one of their numbers?

In your example, I agree.... King Felix deserves a better outcome for pitching on a run-impaired team.
That being said, I'm sure he could have left Seattle for a better team w/ Free Agency if he felt his accomplishments were being overlooked, but I think he agreed to a lucrative, long contract extension.
Perhaps he feels "If I am 'getting paid' I don't need awards ... Just show me the money!"