[chevy man 22]

Base Rc's are basically worthless unless it's the top uber prospect then it might bring a few dollars right after release. The big dog of trading cards now days if you will are low numbered prospect auto's.

If it's not signed or #'d to less than 50 then you might as well give it to the kid down the street if you're in it for the money. If not then it doesn't really matter if the market crashes again or not.

[DrMitchJ]

Not to be all Doom and Gloom, but Cross4444 is making valid points to consider.
Back in the late 80's early 90's I was buying cards and basically there were 3 companies, then 4, then 5 then everyone started coming out with elite editions, glossy editions, scented editions, hologram, holofoil, plastic, lenticular, etc. etc. etc. Everyone started carrying cards. Comic shops, walmart, walgreens, kmart, etc.

Like every 'market' on the planet there's a balloon and it always pops. As fast as everyone jumped on the card bandwagon, even more abandoned ship when it became too much to bear. shops closed, people were disappointed, companies folded.

What's different now? Topps has a lock on the license. They're at a point where perhaps they're exploiting their licence to flood the market and knock out their competition (a time honored tradition in retail ) ... but as history shows, competition is healthy for a market and monopolization is unhealthy for long term business growth. How long can Topps pump out the same product in different wrappers and expect the small depressed market to support itself? How many variations of a Polanco Rookie card are necessary and desired by the collector. Essentially, with all the s/n cards. they're manufacturing supply and demand. If there are 'rainbows' of cards and there are 1/1 autos and 10/10 autos and 50/50 autos and there are 100/100 autos aren't there really 161/161 autos? is the 1/1 really that rare demanding $1000 or are there really 160 other autos of that player. Is one auto card really THAT much better than any other?

My recommendations:
Topps ...stop being greedy.. you may be about to shoot yourself in the foot.
Buyers: don't buy into the hype. A Bryce Harper rookie card, statistically speaking, will never fund your retirement or pay your children's college tuition.
Buy it if you enjoy it, but don't bank on it.

[rentzington]

I like prospecting since I am a baseball fan and love following prospect lists etc. Part of that is the fantasy baseball player in me.

BUT I agree there are just too many prospect products, I would love to see platinum merge with chrome and the platinum cards be inserts. In addition to that release what blasted bowman/bowman chrome product don't split that &$*# out

[nol84kc]

Since returning to the hobby the #1 thing I've noticed is how ridiculous the prospect market has become. It started off with Bowman, then Bowman Chrome, then Donruss EEE, then Tristar's Pro Debut, Bowman DP&P, etc.. In my opinion, that was all fine. Enough of a variance to get something special and have a first card of a prospect. The last couple of years though it seems to have been blown way out of proportion.

By my memory, in the last 2-3 years Topps has added

Pro Debut
Heritage Minors
Bowman Platinum
Bowman Sterling
Bowman Inception

All of these have been added without replacing something being taken off the market (except Pro Debut).
Along the way the market has been flooded with "rookie cards", autographs and tons of crap. Here's the thing though, these cards aren't special anymore. Topps is doing exactly what it has always tried to do, and that's print money until the bubble pops. In a few years when prospectors realize that that Platinum X-Fractor they spent $20 on a few years ago is now worthless, I hope they're not surprised.

Cards of top prospects such as Byron Buxton are likely commanding more money than they will in a couple of years, EVEN IF he becomes an all-star. Reason being, there are THOUSANDS of his autos and "RC" already on the market.

It's not a good time to be prospecting as an "investment". My advice is to stick to the old faithfuls such as Bowman and Bowman Chrome, the rest will be remembered as flash in the pan products. Overproduction has never been good for the collector.

Thoughts?

Valid points. The boxes are still flying off the shelves so the flooding will continue until sales drop.

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Chrome is King

It's been said too often but it really is true. I would probably agree that there are now too many products but I don't think the prospect market is in danger. Just look at the prices colored chrome autos bring in of even mediocre prospects. There is a very healthy demand for this stuff and I don't see that changing anytime soon

+1. Let's compare it to the NFL. Each year Topps, Panini, & UD (to a lesser extent now) flood the market with products. Different parallels, sets, and variations of new rookie cards. People still pay top dollar for boxes knowing that many of the rookies will be out of the league in 2-3 years. The market has been flooded in football since around 2002 and is fine. I do not see the bubble bursting on these.