[briankort]

I started a project awhile back where I take all of the statistics the NBA provides on players and come up with a point value of how much a player is worth to their team. The player must have played at least 4 years in the league to go into my spreadsheet. So far I have statistics on 740 players from 1977 until now and statistics on 248 players pre 1977. I separate pre 1977 from today's players because they didn't keep statistics on turnovers assists and steals for every year of these players careers before 1977. (some might have it, but not most so I just left it off for all of them) I felt it would not be an accurate comparison against players from 1977 until now.

I take everything (that statistics provides) into account and come up with a final number.

Points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks are all positive things

Turnovers are negative

I also use a factor for the number of years a person played in the league. I think a guy who can maintain 15 ppg, 8 rpg and 4 apg for 15 years should get a little bonus over a guy who could only do it for 8.

I also correct for free throw percentage. Free throws are FREE points for your team. If you are missing them you are hurting your team.

The last thing I do is use minutes played and not games played for my calculation. This is for two reasons. Your only grading a player based on the number of minutes he was on the floor. Also, later in a great players career he plays less minutes. I feel his numbers should not suffer because he is not as young as he once used to be. So instead of averaging 15 ppg his first 10 years and only 6 ppg his last 5 years, he might consistently average .63 "points" per minute he is on the floor.

I realize this reference is not perfect. There are no statistics yet (I don't think anyway) for lock down defense and things like heart, drive determination, competitive spirit, leadership and a lot of other things that make basketball players worth something to their team. But I wanted to see just from a statistical standpoint how players stacked up against each other.

If you want to see some examples, pick 5 players and I will give you my breakdown in order from top to bottom of who is the most valuable and least valuable statistically in the group using my formula.

Here is an example in order from most valuable to least valuable. This doesn't mean you wouldn't want any of these players on your team. It just means statistically the top player does more for his team than the bottom player. I realize some of these guys are still playing so the ranking might not be accurate until after they retire. But here it is anyway.

John Stockton
Steve Nash
Sam Cassell
Allen Iverson
Jason Kidd

Guys this is just my formula and my project, I am not saying it is fact. I am doing it for fun. We don't have to agree on how the players rate against each other.

[TBarn291]

Hmmm ok I got five for you.

Shaquille O'neal
Dikembe Mutombo
Hakeem Olajuwon
Patrick Ewing
David Robinson

[briankort]

Hmmm ok I got five for you.

Shaquille O'neal
Dikembe Mutombo
Hakeem Olajuwon
Patrick Ewing
David Robinson

Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson
Patrick Ewing
Shaquille O'neal
Dikembe Mutombo

Shaq would be the best statistically overall above anyone since 1977 even Jordan if he could have shot at least 75% from the free throw line.

The top 4 are very close. Dikembe is a distant 5th

[mickey7mantle7]

Pierce
Duncan
Lebron
Durant
Kobe

[briankort]

Pierce
Duncan
Lebron
Durant
Kobe

I included a number this time and I can go back and add it to the others if asked. The number is Total points per minute on the floor. This is not just actual points but everything like I mentioned in the OP.

Kobe - 1.15
Duncan - 1.03
LeBron - .98
Pierce - .96
Durant - .90

Durant and Lebron are both hurt by years in the league compared to the other 3 players. 11 years is the break even point. You get a little bonus for every year over 11 and a deduction for every year under. I have my reason for using 11 years, but it's a secret Part of my formula.

Also 75% free throw shooting is my break even point. Over you get an addition to your score and under you get a deduction.

The numbers shown are final numbers after bonuses and deductions.

[aprirr]

That's a pretty sweet statistical concept, man. Better watch out or people will start referring to you as the "Bill James" of basketball!

[briankort]

That's a pretty sweet statistical concept, man. Better watch out or people will start referring to you as the "Bill James" of basketball!

Well, I wouldn't go that far. It's just a little project/hobby. Thanks for the compliment though.

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I forgot to mention that I am only using regular season statistics and not playoff or all-star game numbers.

[aprirr]

Gotta start somewhere. If you could apply your concept to kids in college and try to project their likelihood of success at the pro level, you would have NBA teams knocking down your door!

[jacobystealshome]

Also 75% free throw shooting is my break even point. Over you get an addition to your score and under you get a deduction.

shouldnt free throws - and frankly, other stats like rebounding - be measured against the mean of the position? granted, that gets harder in today's league where traditional positions are very much melting into each other

however, thinking specifically of rebounds, assists and free throws: doesnt normal position variance fluctuate so greatly between positions that comparison of regular numbers instead of positional numbers make it hard to do real comparisons?

[briankort]

Gotta start somewhere. If you could apply your concept to kids in college and try to project their likelihood of success at the pro level, you would have NBA teams knocking down your door!

Yeah, that would be a sweet gig.

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shouldnt free throws - and frankly, other stats like rebounding - be measured against the mean of the position? granted, that gets harder in today's league where traditional positions are very much melting into each other

however, thinking specifically of rebounds, assists and free throws: doesnt normal position variance fluctuate so greatly between positions that comparison of regular numbers instead of positional numbers make it hard to do real comparisons?

Like I said from the beginning it's not perfect. This is also not a comparison of players so to speak, it is a comparison of how valuable you are to your team. What do you do for your team when you step on the floor? Do you help them or hurt them? You would be the most valuable to your team if you can score, rebound, pass, make free throws, block shots, get steals and not turn the ball over. Start taking anyone of those things away and you become less valuable.

Not sure why the ability to shoot free throws should matter based on the position you play. If you have talent and not just size and you practice, you will be a better free throw shooter.

There are big men that shot or are shooting over 80% for their career. Durant, Nowitzki, Laimbeer, Yao Ming, etc.

Also, I think in general big guys get more rebounds and shot blocks. Smaller guys get more steals and assists. I think most of the time they balance each other out.