[mackalack]

This is just a little something i did for my other site today bored.

This is for informational use and discussion and none of this is my opinion.

Remember when refractors were case hits or super hard pulls? Remember finally finding that refractor and it was the coolest card you owned?

Now refractors are overproduced and nearly 1 in every pack. There are also multiple products with some sort of refractor variation on the checklist.

Lets take a step back and look at the history of refractors in football.

This is just a brief overview of some of the highest selling refractors dating back to 1998. These are regular refractors only as you will see a drastic change in price. Now throw an auto on them and you will see that change again as well

click the links for the first 3 years as i have too many images in post


1998:
http://www.sportzin.com/forums/uploads/i...U10903.jpg
Sold for: 1,000 BIN

1999: (297 Total Ended Auctions)
http://www.sportzin.com/forums/uploads/i...U10903.jpg
Sold for: 57.99 BIN

2000: (186 Total Ended Auctions)
http://www.sportzin.com/forums/uploads/i...U10903.jpg
Sold For: $29.56 Auction

2001: (219 Total Ended Auctions)

Sold For: $235 BIN

2002: (200 Total Ended Auctions)

Sold for: $20.51 Auction

2003: (236 Total Ended Auctions)

Sold for: $277.09 Auction

2004: (276 Total Ended Auctions)

Sold For: $90 BIN

2005: (617 Total Ended Auctions)

Sold for: $122.22 Auction

2006: (1,367 Total Ended Auctions)

Sold for: $45.00 Auction

2007: (1,508 Total Ended Auctions)

Sold For: $115.00 Auction

2008: (1,460 Total Ended Auctions)

Sold for: $77 Auction

2009: (1,683 Total Ended Auctions)

Sold For: $48.99 BIN

2010: (3,583 Total Ended Auctions)

Super 1/1
Sold for: $500 BIN

[CowboysFanatic]

You gonna do a history timeline to when they started added autos also to see the change? I collected up till about 95-96 or so and can remember cards like these being huge hits, then quit for about 15 years till i got into it again this year. Now i see tons of them, but i really like how they have evolved to crystal atomics and just really great looking cards, with autos too. However even though they do demand good rpices in todays market, they dont seem to hold the prestige and huge prices they once did if you happened to get lucky enough to have a auto'd card. I can remember when a auto card of practically anyone good went for like 1k, but that was in good economic times

[mackalack]

I will prob do something similar tommorow or maybe do all sports and show the differences.

I was told this was one of the first sets with refractor versions

[CowboysFanatic]

They first started coming out in the early 90's or so, probably about 94 or 95, maybe a lil earlier, i dont really remember as they were so rare. That green looks like it is from one of those earlier years.

[mackalack]

I am pretty sure that 1993 Topps

[lambeau legend4]

WOW! Sweet cards & a cool history lesson.

Man, those cards take me back! Mid to late 1990's was the best time for cards, imo. Its when pulling a rc or an insert actually meant something. I remember growing up (I was 13yrs old at the time), I pulled an Irving Fryar gameball from a collectors edge product. When I pulled that, EVERYONE wanted it! Jus because it was sooooo rare to pull one. I think I ended up getting about $150 in trade for that card. I actually prefer many of "old school" cards over todays products. It seems like in todays market, there is such an overflow of the same old stuff. Back then, card companies were actually creative.... Very eccentric die cuts, sportsflix, movi motion, holograms, dufex technology, ect. MAN! Those were the days!!!

[ugameck]

its all overproduction. the 2002 topps chrome set you have in your example - EVERY rookie card was a refractor. i remember pulling the David Carr out of a retail pack and it being one of the best hits i've ever pulled.

now, every single 'chrome' set (bowman chrome, topps chrome, finest, bowman platinum, bowman sterling, blah blah blah.....) has the same thing. back then it was topps chrome, bowman chrome, finest. oh, and yes, i would love getting a refractor because it was 1:10 packs or something like that. now every pack has a refractor.

i said it in another non-related post.....i hate everything now because i can get what i always wanted so easily!!!!

[jplarson]

I will prob do something similar tommorow or maybe do all sports and show the differences.

I was told this was one of the first sets with refractor versions

That's the Special Effects parallel from the 1994 Topps set. Some notable rookies from that set include Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Willie McGinest, Sam Adams, Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Johnnie Morton plus veteran players like Warren Moon in a Vikings uniform and Joe Montana in a Chiefs uniform.

Personally I don't consider these cards refractors as they really don't have a rainbow effect to them. I do think of them as the precursor to Xfractors. I'm trying to build this set on the side, so if anyone has some extras send me a PM.

The 1993 Finest baseball set features refractors as did the 1993-94 Basketball set. In '94 Football and Hockey joined in.

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Lets take a step back and look at the history of refractors in football.

This is just a brief overview of some of the highest selling refractors dating back to 1998. These are regular refractors only as you will see a drastic change in price. Now throw an auto on them and you will see that change again as well

I think this is interesting, but if we wanted to do a study on the increased supply of refractors and how pricing changed we would need to use different data. Of course a 1998 Manning RC graded 10 would sell for more than a 2007 Brady PSA 10.

Of the 13 cards cited, 3 were non-rookie cards, 2 were not QBs, and some were graded and some were not. Plus there are examples from different sets (Bowman, Topps Chrome, Finest). A more accurate way to pull this data would be to track all Brett Favre or Peyton Manning regular refractor cards from the same set and track the change over the years. Favre would be ideal as he does not have a rookie card refractor that would skew the results.

I like the discussion you've brought up and I hope to see more data pour into this thread. If I have time later I can do some research of my own but this is a great start you made.