(07-29-2011 10:00 PM)dandsbeck1 Wrote: Damn. Case 3 Box 5 was supposed to be the Harper Superfractor. Nice pull on the Auto and congrats to both of us on Harper autos (though I have to wait until November for mine).
(07-29-2011 09:08 PM)pyweed Wrote: Case #3, Box #4
Emerald prospect refractors /599: Shelby Miller, Jacob Goebbert
Autos: Mike Foltynewicz
Emerald auto /399: Adam Warren
Auto relic /1166: John McDonald
Case #3, Box #5
Emerald prospect refractor /599: Hector Noesi
Blue prospect refractor /199: Derek Norris
Auto: Bryce Harper
Blue auto /99: Mike Foltynewicz
Triple auto redemption: Jason Castro/Brett Wallace/Chris Johnson
Auto relic /1166: Leo Nunez
Comments: There we go. Feast or famine with this product, and here’s an example of the feast side. Harper autos are holding at > $250 at the moment, and most are exchanges, whereas mine is live. The triple is excellent also, and there are a couple on eBay ending tomorrow so I can get a sense for the market. The contest card is still the /50 gold refractor in box #3, but this is the best box so far, and maybe in the whole break. Woohoo!
Case #3, Box #6
Emerald prospect refractor /599: Manny Machado
Blue prospect refractor /199: Eduardo Escobar
Autos: Brad Holt, Schaeffer Hall
USA auto redemption
Auto relic /1166: Max Ramirez
Comments: Back to grinding. It just hit me that my Nunez auto relic is a bat. Dude has never had an MLB plate appearance. Does he even own a bat?
(07-29-2011 09:03 AM)pyweed Wrote: Yeah, I can see how it might seem that I'm just being negative. For a little emotional balance, you can look at my 2010 Bowman Sterling thread (5 case break graded A):
or for a more direct comparison, my 2010 Bowman Platinum thread (5 case thread graded B):
Through 2 cases of 2011 Bowman Platinum I am headed towards a D grade without a single above average box. By "average" I mean that the cards in it have aggregate cash value approaching what I paid for the box. So my definition of average doesn't compel me to grade on a curve within the break. If I did, the superfractor box would be above average as you said.
But consider the cash value of that superfractor. What do you think it would bring in an auction on eBay? Pretty tough to evaluate because at the time I pulled it there hadn't been any supers sold yet. My best estimate of its cash value was $45. Perhaps that's conservative. A Jordan Pacheco super later sold for $125 and a Matt Moore sold for $205. On the other hand, there isn't much market for Puello. His parallel cards aren't selling well, if at all. So I think $45 may be in the ballpark.
Now consider that I paid a little over $91 for the box. For me to grade the box at above average, the cash value of the remaining cards need to total well above $91, and frankly, I just didn't get there. I got to about what I paid for, which is why I graded it a C.
Hope this helps understand my methodology. I really like hearing different opinions about the cash value of these cards, especially early in the game when eBay isn't much help in that regard. I want to be as accurate as possible, even if that means grading every box above average or every box below average.
Case #2 Summary
Tyler Skaggs (2)
Emerald autos /399:
Gold auto /50:
Miguel De Los Santos
USA Autos (2)
Auto relics /1166:
Auto relics /666:
J. P. Arencibia
Auto relic /115:
Green auto relic /199:
Gold auto relic /25:
Comments:This was a better case than Case #1, but it’s still a significant loss relative to my outlay. These boxes were worth about $72 each. The Puello super is the hit of the break so far, which means that out of 2160 cards none of them likely have a CV of $50, which rarely happens with a Bowman product. I’ll start posting Case #3 Friday night, and with some luck I’ll be done with the break Sunday. Good luck in the contest everyone!