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Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
06-15-2008, 01:39 PM
Post: #1
Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
10 team, 5x5 standard, keeper league:

A) Josh Hamilton and Roy Oswalt

OR

B) Vladimir Guerrero and Justin Verlander

Which option would you prefer for the rest of this year and going into the next couple years?
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06-15-2008, 01:52 PM
Post: #2
Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
I would say A. Vlad's numbers have been decreasing every year and I don't consider him an elite player anymore. Verlander has been horrible this season but he will rebound. On the other side you get arguabley the best hitter in baseball this season in Hamilton and a solid pitcher in Oswalt. The only problem with side A is that Hamilton hasn't played a full season yet and Oswalt is still trying to rebound from a horrible, horrible start. Even so, I would still take A.
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06-15-2008, 01:57 PM
Post: #3
Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
A, IMO
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06-15-2008, 02:00 PM
Post: #4
Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
ravensgc_5 Wrote:I would say A. Vlad's numbers have been decreasing every year and I don't consider him an elite player anymore. Verlander has been horrible this season but he will rebound. On the other side you get arguabley the best hitter in baseball this season in Hamilton and a solid pitcher in Oswalt. The only problem with side A is that Hamilton hasn't played a full season yet and Oswalt is still trying to rebound from a horrible, horrible start. Even so, I would still take A.

Yeah, I guess I'm leaning that way. Since each counterpart involved is a similar player to the other I think it comes down to whether I think Hamilton can keep this up or not. It seems like he's going to.

Hamilton > Vlad now and probably going into the future
Verlander > Oswalt now and probably going into the future

But if Hamilton keeps it up his advantage over Vlad is way more than Verlander's advantage over Oswalt.
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06-15-2008, 02:03 PM
Post: #5
Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
I say definitely go for keeping Roy Oswalt and Josh Hamilton.
Guerrero and Verlander have not been looking good this season, it Hamilton and Oswalt for this season at least; hands down.
Hamilton has a long time to go too, and I think Oswalt will continue to pitch well for another few years or so, so the matter of those two guys lasting is not an issue. He usually pitches well season after season, whereas Verlander is inconsistent with very hot-and-cold performances. Despite the great wins numbers last year and the previous year, Verlander is just not getting it done on the mound this year (3-9, 4.64 ERA, 55/35 K/BB ratio). Oswalt isn't doing much better (5-6, 5.06 ERA),his K/BB ratio (69/21) is much better than Verlander's. Oswalt has also done so in less innings than Verlander this year. And with Josh Hamilton being the best player in the bigs this year, definitely go for option A-Oswalt and Hamilton.
So in conclusion, Verlander and Oswalt are about equal, though Oswalt strikes out more and walks less, and Hamilton is better than Vlad. Oswalt is still bouncing back from an awful start, so i think his numbers will get better this year.
But hey, that's just me.
Anthony
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06-15-2008, 02:12 PM
Post: #6
Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
a_minors Wrote:I say definitely go for keeping Roy Oswalt and Josh Hamilton.
Guerrero and Verlander have not been looking good this season, it Hamilton and Oswalt for this season at least; hands down.
Hamilton has a long time to go too, and I think Oswalt will continue to pitch well for another few years or so, so the matter of those two guys lasting is not an issue. He usually pitches well season after season, whereas Verlander is inconsistent with very hot-and-cold performances. Despite the great wins numbers last year and the previous year, Verlander is just not getting it done on the mound this year (3-9, 4.64 ERA, 55/35 K/BB ratio). Oswalt isn't doing much better (5-6, 5.06 ERA),his K/BB ratio (69/21) is much better than Verlander's. Oswalt has also done so in less innings than Verlander this year. And with Josh Hamilton being the best player in the bigs this year, definitely go for option A-Oswalt and Hamilton.
But hey, that's just me.
Anthony

Well, not to mention the fact that Verlander is 5 years younger and doesn't pitch in a hitters park, since the start of May Verlander seems to have gotten back on track whereas Oswalt has not...

Verlander: 3.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .234 BAA
Oswalt: 4.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .273 BAA

And that was BEFORE Oswalt's line today of 5.2 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 7 ER
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06-15-2008, 02:15 PM
Post: #7
Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
Good hitter and struggling pitcher going both ways...but A has more upside.
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06-15-2008, 02:36 PM
Post: #8
Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
This is my evaluation of the trade:
A - Has got a player who should decline after this year or later this year in Hamilton, and a P who has been pitching well below where history tells us he should be at.
B - Has got a player who should decline after this year and year after year in Vladdy, and a P who has been pitching below where we think he should be, but we really don't have a long track record of sucess.

Thus, I'd rather have a P who should regain a solid starting form and an outperforming OF, then a declining OF and a P who we think should become a solid starter.
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06-15-2008, 02:38 PM
Post: #9
Evaluate a Fantasy Trade
I would go with B, good young pitching to so hard to find, Vladdy is heating up. Hamilton hasn't played a full season ever, and the heat could wear on him.
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