[mdavison]

I'll just stick with guys who are retired

HOFers within 5 years of Eligibility:
Craig Biggio - position based plus 3000 hits = HOF
Tom Glavine - 300 wins
Ken Griffey Jr - No brainer
Randy Johnson - 2nd All-Time in Ks and over 300 wins
Greg Maddux - 350+ wins alone is enough
Pedro Martinez - Sub 3 ERA and very, very dominant in his prime...only 100 losses and over 3,000Ks
Mike Piazza - mostly position based due to the power from the catcher's position
John Smoltz - see Dennis Eckersley
Frank Thomas - more impressive than his HRs was his OBP, that alone gets him in


HOFers that will eventually get in, but not within 5 years of eligibility:
Jeff Bagwell - All around great hitter, Frank Thomas is he would have played longer
Barry Bonds - steroids yes, but he just had way too many numbers to overlook, only 500/500 man in the game means a whole lot...they will make him sweat it out, but will make it
Roger Clemens - same story as Bonds basically, just too many impressive numbers
Barry Larkin - solid all around player and playing entire career with 1 team does mean a lot to HOF voters
Mike Mussina - 270 wins is enough

Sorry, won't make it:
500HRs, not going to make it
Jeff Kent - 2B with power, but that was it, not 1 GG
Jack Morris - had a long career, but not that dominant
Mark McGwire (Steroids)
Rafael Palmeiro (Steroids)
Curt Schilling - had a long career but only managed 217 wins with 3.46 ERA, D. Wells had more wins
Gary Sheffield (Steroids)
Sammy Sosa (Steroids)
Bernie Williams - sorry, but an OF that didn't hit 300 HRs or have a .300BA won't make it

You can't say Bonds and Clemens are in and then say McGwire (and others) are out due to steroids. Either all of the players that illegally used steroids are out, or all of them have the possiblility to get in. Take steroids out of the equation and McGwire is in IMO.