[uvaspina]

By now everyone knows A-Rod needs hip surgery that will likely keep him out of the line-up until June. As it stands, he's 36.5 years old, has played 19 seasons, has 5 years left on his current contract, and has 647 homers, which puts him 115 short of the record.

He'll need to average 23 home runs a year thru 2017 to make it. Considering the fact that he'll miss a few months in 2013, that means he'll need to make up some ground (bring the true average closer to 26). Over the last 5 seasons his HR totals are as follows: 35, 30, 30, 16, 18.

Any chance he makes it?

Pujols is second on the list of active players who conceivably have a chance to get close. He'll be 33 in January and has 475 HR. Over the last 5 seasons his HR totals are as follows: 37, 47, 42, 37, 30. (To reach the record, he'll need 35+ HR per year for the next 8 years, which would be his age 40 season).

Personally, I think A-Rod will end up around the 700 mark. I think he'll need another season (probably with the Rays) to reach Ruth's total (714).

I think Pujols will end up around 665-675.

In related news, it might be a while until we see another 500 HR guy. Konerko (36) has an outside shot with 422 HR. Dunn (32) has a reasonable chance at 402. After that, there's a cluster of players in their early 30's who have 320-350 HR. (Beltre, Teixeira, Cabrera). I think Cabrera is the most likely of that group to make it, but it'll be 6-8 years. After that, who knows.