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+--- Thread: Lets talk economics (/thread-1466168.html)
Lets talk economics - Merovius - 11-17-2011
Not really but I just realized something very important as a collector whos come back after a 20 year break. I just picked up an old Beckett from '92 with the Kirb on the cover and started comparing cards from today to cards from 20 years ago to see where the markets gone.
Of course were all familiar with the overproduced cards of the 80s and 90s but I was more concerned with vintage prices. I have a ton of cards from 50-56 so my personal vested interest is significant.
I was shocked to find that on average, actually for about 90% of the cards I looked up, all had decreased in value. Some had decreased by as much as 60% of their 1992 value. Very few had held their value and anything that actually gained any value was marginal at best and a complete anomaly. The gains I saw didnt even account for inflation.
Thus any school boy could conclude that sports cards are a terrible investment for the long run. The short run however paints a very different picture; its much more a shrewd business mans game than a collectors game as those with more capital cut overhead through bulk purchases and move the hottest cards in the shortest amount of time to make the largest gains.
I dont have a crystal ball, if I did I could retire on gold bullion and ETF's, but it is quite clear that collecting for the long run investment is foolish.
Then again I never got into collecting for purely economical reasons. Im a fan and I collect because I love the game. But I think Im gonna scratch the last couple of players off the list and put the cards away for my kids. Ive built a significant collection and Im sure theyll enjoy it just as I did when my father gave me his.
I hate to be the guy shouting "DOOM!" but it just struck me as painfully obvious. Im sure the shop owners have heard it all before and none of this is really news to anyone. Just my 2 cents, lets hear yours.
RE: Lets talk economics - oneofakindcards - 11-17-2011
I'm waiting for a Star Trek replicator-type machine that will be able to flawlessly duplicate anything... including cards
![[Image: star-trek-replicator.jpg]](http://psychsurvivor2.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/star-trek-replicator.jpg)
RE: Lets talk economics - chevy man 22 - 11-17-2011
Also look at it this way the mid 90's is when for the most part the influx of adult collectors joined the hobby and basically kicked the kids out. Griffey Jr.'s Upper Deck rookie became the first card since the old school guys like AAron to hit the $100 mark and that was like throwing blood in the water to sharks. Adult saw it as a way to make a quick buck and in reality that's also when the buying of whole boxes of cards became popular as well.
Companies started producing more and more sets and subsets that your normal kid who spent their allowance money on cards just couldn't keep up and collect them all. Then you started seeing the price of packs go up first it was from $.50 for a pack of Topps to $2 maybe for Upper Deck until today you have specialized sets that are what $100-$200 a box for maybe 6-8 cards.
Now today as said it's all about pulling the hits and flipping them as soon as you can for as much as you can it's no longer a collecting hobby it's a speculator hobby. I've often compared trading cards today to the stock market where in a very short span a card can go from a value of hundreds sometimes thousands for the right guys Superfractor (ex. Strasburg) to maybe a $5-$10 card if your lucky all with in a couple of months. Again with the adults it's almost like a look what I pulled and how much money I made off of selling it rather than hey look at this neat rookie card I pulled I think I'll put that into my collection and maybe give it to my kids or grandkids one day.
And speaking of Superfractors or 1/1 cards to be more specific. What exactly makes one 1/1 card so much more valuable than all the other 1/1 cards ? They are all limited to only 1 so why does a Superfractor bring so much more than say a 1/1 printing plate of the same guy ? I get that with Printing Plates there are 4 different versions but still they are all limted to only 1 of each color.
RE: Lets talk economics - PadresFan86 - 11-17-2011
I think because the plates don't look as "nice"
RE: Lets talk economics - muz0 - 11-17-2011
Those cards from the 50s are going to jump big time once it gets close to that 100 year mark anniversary. I'll be in my 70s then but hell, what a treat that would be.
RE: Lets talk economics - rad_1205 - 11-17-2011
Its just sad simple and plain. Its going to take the business of collecting to completely flop before you see a raise in alot of items, but then again with the internet nothing is really rare anymore. Granted now a days you have cards printed to 1. But those arent hard to come by anymore. If you have a little cash you can pick them off left and right. I remember the first set to come out with 1 of 1 cards. Flair Master Piece when those cards hit the market you were talking thousands of dollards for the stars and a few hundered for your semistars. Now you can get them for basically penny's compared to what they use to be. Same at the 1993 Finest Refractor cards...
I dont know whats left for the Collecting world (NOT GOOD) thats all i can say!
Packs are getting more expensive every year and they are producing way less cards. Look at retail packs for example. Just paid $3 a pack for Bowman Chrome yesterday and only 3 cards in my pack. Granted i bought way more than one pack, but i got nothing but garbage i was really better off hitting up the casino or just throwing my money in the trash before i bought the cards.
I mean really there is nothing left to do anymore. Auto are a dime a dozen, Game-used cards are played out and not worth anything anymore. I dont know thats all i got! Its not going to stop me from collecting but most definately ill be collecting more older stuff than any of the new stuff hitting the selve ill let everyone else spend the hundreds and hundred of dollars to be disappointed and pick off the good pulls off ebay. Saves me money in the long run! Its sad not to get the thrill of the packs but there really isnt a thrill factor anymore when you only get 3-5 cards a pack.
(11-17-2011, 07:18 AM)muz0 Wrote: Those cards from the 50s are going to jump big time once it gets close to that 100 year mark anniversary. I'll be in my 70s then but hell, what a treat that would be.
i doubt there will be a rise at the 100 hundred year mark. Tell me a card that is 100 years old that has rised in value in the last 20 years? Besides Honus Wagner. Mantle 1952 Topps RC use to book at 30 large and that card is slowly decling in price. The only topps Mantle RCs that have rised are the ones that have been graded.
RE: Lets talk economics - jwest1334 - 11-17-2011
If people would collect for the fun of collecting, and not worry about investing in cards, then it wouldn't be an issue. Cards are in my opinion never an investment long term. I occasionally buy in bulk, and flip to make a few bucks, but I do it because I enjoy it. it is normally not enough money to live on.
BTW gold has only been a good investment for 6-7 years. the return on it is historically awful. you would have averaged about 11-12% over the last 50 years with good mutual fund(s), and yes that includes this recession that we are in.
RE: Lets talk economics - dkotart - 11-17-2011
Here is my opinion on the subject. Beckett gives you an estimated value on a raw ungraded version, they compile their data based on sales from many different sources. The problem is most people will only by graded versions of vintage cards to ensure that they are not getting a counterfiet or altered card, and raw versions are so beat up people will not spend BV for a card in bad shape and raw versions that are in really good shape throw up red flags becuase people wonder if it is legit. Therefore as you look through your Beckett the value that they are giving you is somewhat misleading, because where as a raw version of a card may only sell at 50% of BV a graded (PSA 6 or better)version may sell at 3-5 times over BV.
RE: Lets talk economics - jonathancard - 11-17-2011
I just see all this what a cards worth as silly. I collect for fun and to try and complete sets and share something with my kids. Granted I want to sell a card for a good price but its not why I buy boxes or buy singles. I buy them to have them to enjoy them. This hobby is a fun hobby if you let go of what a card is worth and just focus on getting things you like and want. I think if I tried to make money at this not only would it be frustrating but it would take the fun out of something I truly enjoy. i do agree with dkotart most people myself inculded look at good condition vintage on the bay and wonder about if its real or not, which in turn hurts the estimated value of the card. Im sure beckett has to inlcude the sale prices of cards that some people dont want to bid on because of fear of a fake.
RE: Lets talk economics - oneofakindcards - 11-17-2011
(11-17-2011, 01:41 AM)chevy man 22 Wrote: ...Now today as said it's all about pulling the hits and flipping them as soon as you can for as much as you can it's no longer a collecting hobby it's a speculator hobby. I've often compared trading cards today to the stock market where in a very short span a card can go from a value of hundreds sometimes thousands for the right guys Superfractor (ex. Strasburg) to maybe a $5-$10 card if your lucky all with in a couple of months. Again with the adults it's almost like a look what I pulled and how much money I made off of selling it rather than hey look at this neat rookie card I pulled I think I'll put that into my collection and maybe give it to my kids or grandkids one day....
This is a particularly great point. Collecting has become so specialized - partially because its impossible to collect and put together sets. As a result, if one is not a collector of the *players* of the cards one pulls, one doesn't feel guilty selling because the pack was so expensive in the first place.
When one thinks about it, manufacturers like sets that nobody can complete as it makes almost everyone who buys packs a 'gambling middleman' for them...these people are actually paying for the "privilege" of being a distributor LOL. Besides, the odds of pulling your player are usually poor at best, especially in the higher-end products.