(07-29-2011, 03:46 AM)daytonator Wrote: I appreciate this break and ur analysis is excellent, however I think some of ur valuations are low. I cannot believe (as in I do not believe whatsoever) that all 24 of your boxes have been below average, that is just unheard of. Any box with a superfractor in it is usually pretty good. Likewise with the Castro auto/relic box. Lighten up on Topps a bit. Good luck with the rest of your break thogugh, you are very generous with your time etc for doing this.
Yeah, I can see how it might seem that I'm just being negative. For a little emotional balance, you can look at my 2010 Bowman Sterling thread (5 case break graded A):
http://www.beckett.com/forums/thread-1404523.html
or for a more direct comparison, my 2010 Bowman Platinum thread (5 case thread graded B):
http://www.beckett.com/forums/thread-1396290.html
Through 2 cases of 2011 Bowman Platinum I am headed towards a D grade without a single above average box. By "average" I mean that the cards in it have aggregate cash value approaching what I paid for the box. So my definition of average doesn't compel me to grade on a curve within the break. If I did, the superfractor box would be above average as you said.
But consider the cash value of that superfractor. What do you think it would bring in an auction on eBay? Pretty tough to evaluate because at the time I pulled it there hadn't been any supers sold yet. My best estimate of its cash value was $45. Perhaps that's conservative. A Jordan Pacheco super later sold for $125 and a Matt Moore sold for $205. On the other hand, there isn't much market for Puello. His parallel cards aren't selling well, if at all. So I think $45 may be in the ballpark.
Now consider that I paid a little over $91 for the box. For me to grade the box at above average, the cash value of the remaining cards need to total well above $91, and frankly, I just didn't get there. I got to about what I paid for, which is why I graded it a C.
Hope this helps understand my methodology. I really like hearing different opinions about the cash value of these cards, especially early in the game when eBay isn't much help in that regard. I want to be as accurate as possible, even if that means grading every box above average or every box below average.
Nathan
Case #2 Summary
Autos:
Leon Landry
Anderson Feliz
Kyle Seager
Clint Robinson
Jordan Pacheco
Cody Scarpetta
Cutter Dykstra
Jordan Swagerty
Kyle Parker
Tyler Skaggs (2)
Brandon Guyer
Delino DeShields
Michael Choice
Brad Holt
Mike Foltynewicz
Garrett Richards
Mystery Redemption
Emerald autos /399:
Jimmy Paredes
Mike Foltynewicz
Jordan Pacheco
Domingo Santana
Mystery Redemption
Gold auto /50:
Miguel De Los Santos
USA Autos (2)
Auto relics /1166:
Evan Meek
Yamacio Navarro
John McDonald
Max Ramirez
Brett Cecil
Emilio Bonafacio
Leo Nunez
Auto relics /666:
J. P. Arencibia
Starlin Castro
Auto relic /115:
Austin Jackson
Green auto relic /199:
Trevor Bell
Gold auto relic /25:
Brett Cecil
Grade: D
Comments:This was a better case than Case #1, but it’s still a significant loss relative to my outlay. These boxes were worth about $72 each. The Puello super is the hit of the break so far, which means that out of 2160 cards none of them likely have a CV of $50, which rarely happens with a Bowman product. I’ll start posting Case #3 Friday night, and with some luck I’ll be done with the break Sunday. Good luck in the contest everyone!
![[Image: yankees2copy.jpg]](http://i51.photobucket.com/albums/f354/blayneroessler/yankees2copy.jpg)
