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By now everyone knows A-Rod needs hip surgery that will likely keep him out of the line-up until June. As it stands, he's 36.5 years old, has played 19 seasons, has 5 years left on his current contract, and has 647 homers, which puts him 115 short of the record.

He'll need to average 23 home runs a year thru 2017 to make it. Considering the fact that he'll miss a few months in 2013, that means he'll need to make up some ground (bring the true average closer to 26). Over the last 5 seasons his HR totals are as follows: 35, 30, 30, 16, 18.

Any chance he makes it?

Pujols is second on the list of active players who conceivably have a chance to get close. He'll be 33 in January and has 475 HR. Over the last 5 seasons his HR totals are as follows: 37, 47, 42, 37, 30. (To reach the record, he'll need 35+ HR per year for the next 8 years, which would be his age 40 season).

Personally, I think A-Rod will end up around the 700 mark. I think he'll need another season (probably with the Rays) to reach Ruth's total (714).

I think Pujols will end up around 665-675.

In related news, it might be a while until we see another 500 HR guy. Konerko (36) has an outside shot with 422 HR. Dunn (32) has a reasonable chance at 402. After that, there's a cluster of players in their early 30's who have 320-350 HR. (Beltre, Teixeira, Cabrera). I think Cabrera is the most likely of that group to make it, but it'll be 6-8 years. After that, who knows.
2 years ago I would have had no dought he'd do it now though I'm wondering about his health and weather he even has the heart. I think 2014 will be the tell all year, we'll see. Either way it'll be another asterix on in the record books.
not unless he switches from HGH to anabolic steroids again

#deadserious
I'm thinking he doesn't make it.
He won't make it. I have a feeling A-rod wont even finish the remaining 5 years on his contract.
Not a chance! I used to like watching him play but he ruined that with dirty play, and I'm not talking about PEDs.
Zero chance! I personally wish he would realize that he is washed up and retire so the Yankees can move on without his albatross contract hanging around their necks, but nothing in A-Rod's makeup tells me he would ever do something that is better for someone else if it affects himself!
(12-05-2012 04:47 AM)fulltritty Wrote: [ -> ]Zero chance! I personally wish he would realize that he is washed up and retire so the Yankees can move on without his albatross contract hanging around their necks, but nothing in A-Rod's makeup tells me he would ever do something that is better for someone else if it affects himself!

Did you see that the yanks have an insurance policy on him? If he retires early due to an injury they aren't responsible for much of the contract
I don't think he makes it. As for current players who might reach 500 homers, it's still early but I think you could add Ryan Howard to that list.
I don't think anyone will reach it.
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