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Case #10, Box #7

Draft Blue /399: John Axford
Blue Refractor /199: Adam Moore
Gold Refractor Auto /50: Jake Skole

Grade & Comments: A+. Very nice card. Shakes up the contest standings a little bit too. Still the possibility of an AFLAC in this case.
Contest totals: 12,3,2,0,0,0,0

Great Skole, Nathan!!!

Case #10, Box #8

Draft Blue /399: Taylor Lindsey, Adam Moore
Red Refractor /5: Devin Lohman
Auto: Aaron Sanchez
AFLAC Auto: Matt Harvey

Grade & Comments: A. Sad when the sight of an AFLAC card is depressing. I think that’s my third Harvey AFLAC, and what it means to me is no huge hit left in this case. I could be wrong. The ref refractor was a lot of fun to pull, though. I slid it out verrrry slowly, hoping to catch a glimpse of an auto. Still, about a $50 card.
Contest totals: 12,3,2,0,0,0,0

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(03-25-2011 11:58 PM)amysb4212 Wrote: [ -> ]Great Skole, Nathan!!!

Thanks, it could well be one of those cards I look back on in 5 years as something special.

Case #10, Box #9

Draft Blue /399: Neil Walker
Blue Refractor /199: Logan Morrison
Auto: Deck McGuire

Grade & Comments: F. Worst box in a long, long time. If I don’t get any more parallel autos, contest winner would be illadelf. Actually, illadelf can sustain a blue or an orange refractor, but a gold, a red, a plate, or a super would really hurt, as would a couple of base refractors.
Contest totals: 12,3,2,0,0,0,0

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Case #10, Box #10

Draft Blue /399: Chance Ruffin
Blue Refractor Auto /150: Michael Choice

Grade & Comments: B+. Really nice parallel auto. That’s two blues and a gold in this case, the same number of colored autos as in the four previous cases. This parallel auto actually helps illadelf a little bit. Right now a red auto would swing the contest lead over to kelby, but it looks to me like all other scenarios favor illadelf.
Contest totals: 12,4,2,0,0,0,0

nice pull on the choice!

I knew I shouldn't have added those orange ref. AU's. Hoping you get a great last couple of boxes. I would love to see you to pull a ref. AU, a superfractor AU, and 2 orange AU's. I just wish I could actually see that happening.

Case #10, Box #11

Notable base refractor: Jason Heyward, Alex Wimmers
Draft Blue /399: Cesar Valdez
Blue Refractor /199: Blake Forsythe
Auto Redemption: Drew Pomeranz

Grade & Comments: D. Tired, but I think I’ll bust this last box and sleep. Will e-mail contest winners tomorrow.
Contest totals: 12,4,2,0,0,0,0

Case #10, Box #12

Draft Blue /399: Justin O’Conner
Blue Refractor /199: Dayan Viciedo
Refractor Auto /500: Kolbrin Vitek

Grade & Comments: D. There it is. Wow, that took me so much longer than usual.
Contest totals: 13,4,2,0,0,0,0

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Case #10 Summary
Grade: C
Comments: This is more like the kind of break I was imagining from this product, where AFLAC autos weren’t make-or-break and there are multiple colored refractor autos. Though to be honest, the gold auto still does account for a huge chunk of this case’s value.

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10 Case break grade: C

Comments: I had 2 A cases, 3 C cases, and 5 D cases. The A grades were due in large part to the Machado orange refractor auto and the Harper AFLAC, two cards that together accounted for 21% of the value of the case break (over 20,000 cards). I do feel like I got almost exactly what I paid for, but an uncomfortable percentage is the accumulated value of junk commons. I think $68 delivered is a fair price for a box of this product, with two caveats. First, you should be aware that you are partially paying a gambling premium – a huge chunk of the value in this set is the Harper AFLAC, and you are overpaying slightly for the chance of pulling it. The positive skew in Draft values always exists, but this year it is unprecedented. Second, you should never buy a loose hobby box of this set because it is likely that the AFLAC card has already been pulled from your case. They do not guarantee an AFLAC card per case, but its distribution in my cases is NOT consistent with random pack distribution. Because the Harper AFLAC is such a big chunk of the value of this product, you absolutely need a chance at pulling it. Loose boxes are worth about $10 less than a box from a case that you saw opened with your own eyes.

Thanks for your patience as my break oozed slowly around a terrible work schedule – especially the Case #1 contest winner, motu79. I’ll be e-mailing you today with your choice of autos. Congratulations! The second contest winner is illadelf, who predicted a distribution of parallel autos of 12-4-2-1-0-0-0. The actual distribution was 13-4-2-0-0-0-0, so he was only 5 points off. Had one of my base refractors been an orange, it would have been a PERFECT prediction. Hats off to kelby, who tied in points (13-4-2-0-1-0-0) but lost the UNC tiebreak by a single bucket. Congratulations, illadelf. PM me your address and the Heyward auto will be on the way.

I’m done breaking until the summer, I think. I hope 2011 Bowman Chrome is improved over last year’s product!

Was hoping for that orange in the last box (for both of us). Thanks again for the contest, Nathan!

Thanks for the contest. Hope there is some hidden value in those base and lesser known aflac autos for you. This break def scarred me off the product at this price anyway. At least you had a couple of major hits and a base set should be easy to finish if you dont have it already.